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Auto stocks advance as RBI keeps repo rate unchanged

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Capital Market

Firmness continued on the bourses in early afternoon trade. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was up 214.59 points or 1.04%, off 90.84 points from the day's high and up 258.03 points from the day's low. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. The market cheered the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s surprise decision to keep its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.75% after mid-quarter monetary policy review today, 18 December 2013. It was widely expected that the central bank will raise repo rate by 25 basis points to rein in inflation after recent data showed that both consumer prices and wholesale prices accelerated last month.

 

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) rose after the company announced that MyState, an ASX-listed diversified financial Group in Australia, has implemented TCS BaNCS for core banking. Auto stocks rose as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.75% after a monetary policy review contrary to market expectations of a 25 basis point increase.

The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, and the 50-unit CNX Nifty, both, hit their lowest level in more than 2-1/2 weeks after opening with a downward gap. A bout of volatility was witnessed in early trade as the key benchmark indices reversed initial losses. Key benchmark indices trimmed gains after hitting fresh intraday high in morning trade. Key benchmark indices surged and hit fresh intraday high after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised markets by keeping its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.75% after mid-quarter monetary policy review. The RBI's decision hit the market at around 11:00 IST. Firmness continued on the bourses in early afternoon trade. .

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 249.93 crore on Tuesday, 17 December 2013, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges.

At 12:16 IST, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 214.59 points or 1.04% to 20,826.73. The index jumped 305.43 points at the day's high of 20,917.57 in mid-morning trade, its highest level since 12 December 2013. The index fell 43.44 points at the day's low of 20,568.70 in opening trade, its lowest level since 29 December 2013.

The CNX Nifty was up 66.05 points or 1.08% to 6,205.10. The index hit a high of 6,236 in intraday trade, its highest level since 12 December 2013. The index hit a low of 6,129.95 in intraday trade, its lowest level since 29 December 2013.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On BSE, 1,229 shares gained and 843 shares fell. A total of 162 shares were unchanged.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 1150 crore by 12:15 IST, compared with Rs 912 crore by 11:15 IST.

Among the 30-share Sensex pack, 25 stocks gained and rest of them declined.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) rose 0.7%. The company during market hours announced that MyState, an ASX-listed diversified financial Group in Australia, has implemented TCS BaNCS for core banking. The implementation realises further benefits of the merger between MyState and The Rock, a major provider of financial and insurance services to the Central Queensland region. MyState, with an integrated, scalable core banking platform, can now further support its growth opportunities through improved products and services, and simpler, faster business processes and operations, TCS said.

Auto stocks gained as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.75% after a monetary policy review contrary to market expectations of a 25 basis point increase. Purchases of automobiles, including that of cars, utility vehicles and commercial vehicles are substantially driven by financing.

Maruti Suzuki India (up 1.71%), Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) (up 1.34%) and Ashok Leyland (up 2.57%) gained.

Tata Motors fell 0.42%. Tata Motors' global wholesales fell 19.91% to 81,957 units in November 2013 over November 2012. Global wholesales for Jaguar Land Rover rose 15.31% to 39,956 vehicles in November 2013 over November 2012. Tata Motors announced the data on 13 December 2013.

Shares of two wheeler makers rose. Bajaj Auto (up 2.53%), Hero MotoCorp (up 2.8%) and TVS Motor Company (up 3.02%) rose.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) surged 4.34% after the company said that Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has accorded its approval to Blackstone GPV Capital partners (Mauritius) VI FII to increase its stake in company upto 4.99% through secondary market transaction. The announcement was made before trading hours today, 18 December 2013.

As on 30 September 2013, Blackstone GPV Capital Partners Mauritius VI FII held 10.19 lakh shares, or 2% stake, in MCX.

Godrej Industries rose 1.94% after the company said that ICRA has upgraded the rating of the company's public deposit programme of Rs 100 crore from MAA to MAA+. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 17 December 2013.

Godrej Industries said that ICRA has upgraded the rating of its public deposit programme of Rs 100 crore from MAA (pronounced M Double A) to MAA+ (pronounced M Double A plus). The outlook of the rating is stable. Instruments with this rating are considered to have the high-credit quality. The rated deposits programme carries low credit risk, Godrej Industries said.

PTC India Financial Services (PFS) rose 2.76% after the company said it has divested its entire stake of 16.76% in Meenakshi Energy for a consideration of Rs 209.73 crore. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 17 December 2013.

Meenakshi Energy (MEPL) is setting up 1,000 megawatts (MW) coal based thermal power project in Andhra Pradesh, of which phase I of 300 MW is commissioned.

PFS said it continues to maintain a strong focus on growing its loan book, backed by emphasis on renewable energy and diversification across the energy value chain. The company said it maintains a diversified borrowing mix and is adequately funded to scale up its lending activity and achieve sustained growth. The current equity investment exit will further aid headroom for growth, it added.

Commenting on the transaction, Mr R M Malla - MD & CEO, PFS said, "We are delighted to announce that we have successfully exited from one of our equity investments - Meenakshi Energy. We planned this exit keeping in view, the right opportunity and a robust return which will augment Company's networth. It has been our constant endeavor to leverage our expertise through continuous evaluation of projects and entity at the right stage in order to deliver maximum value to the shareholders. We remain confident of maintaining the pace of growth of our business".

Eveready Industries India rose 2.35% to Rs 34.85 after ICICI Mutual Fund bought 4.79 lakh equity shares of the company from the open market on Tuesday, 17 December 2013.

On Tuesday, 17 December 2013, Prudential ICICI Mutual Fund A/C ICICI Prudential FMCG Fund bought 4.79 lakh shares, or 0.66% stake, of Eveready Industries India at Rs 34.35 each on the NSE.

Bond prices surged as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.75% after a monetary policy review contrary to market expectations of a 25 basis point increase. The yield on 10-year federal paper 8.83% GS 2023 was hovering at 8.8084%, lower than its close of 8.9141% on Tuesday, 17 December 2013. Bond yield and bond prices are inversely related.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.75% after a monetary policy review contrary to market expectations of a 25 basis point increase. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 61.915, compared with its close of 62.01/02 on Tuesday, 17 December 2013.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that today's policy decision was a close one. Even though the RBI maintains status quo today, it can help guide market expectations through a clearer description of its policy reaction function: if the expected softening of food inflation does not materialise and translate into a significant reduction in headline inflation in the next round of data releases, or if inflation excluding food and fuel does not fall, the Reserve Bank of India will act, including on off-policy dates if warranted, so that inflation expectations stabilise and an environment conducive to sustainable growth takes hold. The Reserve Bank's policy action on those dates will be appropriately calibrated, the central bank said in a statement.

The RBI said that current inflation is too high. However, given the wide bands of uncertainty surrounding the short term path of inflation from its high current levels, and given the weak state of the economy, the inadvisability of overly reactive policy action, as well as the long lags with which monetary policy works, there is merit in waiting for more data to reduce uncertainty, the RBI said. There are obvious risks to waiting for more data, including the possibility that tapering of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve may disrupt external markets and that the Reserve Bank of India may be perceived to be soft on inflation. The Reserve Bank of India will be vigilant, it said.

Recent readings suggest that headline inflation, both retail and wholesale, have increased, mainly on account of food prices. While consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI) inflation excluding food and fuel have been stable, despite a steady and necessary increase in administered prices towards market levels, the high level of CPI inflation excluding food and fuel leaves no room for complacency. There is, however, reason to wait before determining the course of monetary policy. There are indications that vegetable prices may be turning down sharply, although trading mark-ups could impede the full pass-through into retail inflation. In addition, the disinflationary impact of recent exchange rate stability should play out into prices. The RBI also said that the negative output gap, including the recent observed slowdown in services growth, as well as the lagged effects of effective monetary tightening since July, should help contain inflation.

Retail inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) has risen unrelentingly through the year so far, pushed up by the unseasonal upturn in vegetable prices, double-digit housing inflation and elevated levels of inflation in the non-food and non-fuel categories. While vegetable prices seem to be adjusting downwards sharply in certain areas, the feed-through to much-too-high headline CPI inflation remains to be seen, the RBI said. Wholesale inflation has also gone up sharply from Q2 onwards, with upside pressures evident across all constituent components, the RBI said.

High inflation at both wholesale and retail levels risks entrenching inflation expectations at unacceptably elevated levels, posing a threat to growth and financial stability, the RBI said. There are also signs of a resumption of high rural wage growth, suggesting second round effects that cannot be ignored. High and persistent inflation also increases the risks of exchange rate instability.

While volatility in financial markets has receded, it could pick up again following the inevitable taper of quantitative easing in the US, given the large dependence of EMEs on external financing, the RBI said. In India, the pick-up in real GDP growth in Q2 of 2013-14, albeit modest, was driven largely by robust growth of agricultural activity, supported by an improvement in net exports. However, the weakness in industrial activity persisting into Q3, still lacklustre lead indicators of services and subdued domestic consumption demand suggest continuing headwinds to growth. Tightening government spending in Q4 to meet budget projections will add to these headwinds. In this context, the revival of stalled investment, especially in the projects cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Investment, will be critical.

The RBI also kept the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4% of net demand and time liability (NDTL) after monetary policy review today, 18 December 2013. With the normalization of exceptional monetary measures, liquidity conditions have improved, as reflected in the steady decline in the access to the MSF. Capital inflows under the Reserve Bank's swap facilities for banking capital and non-resident deposits augmented domestic liquidity significantly from the end of November. Over the first two weeks of December, banks refrained from utilising the limits under the overnight LAF repo and export credit refinance, and, in fact, excess liquidity was parked with the Reserve Bank of India through reverse repo. Liquidity is being managed with a view to ensuring that there is adequate credit flow to the productive sectors of the economy, the RBI said.

The narrowing of the trade deficit since June through November, on positive export growth and contraction in both oil and non-oil imports, should bring the current account deficit (CAD) down to a more sustainable level for the year as a whole, the RBI said.

Robust inflows into the swap windows opened by the Reserve Bank during August-November have contributed significantly to rebuilding foreign exchange reserves thus covering possible external financing requirements and providing stability to the foreign exchange market. Looking ahead, these favourable developments should help to build resilience to external shocks, the RBI said.

Asian stocks edged higher on Wednesday, 18 December 2013, as investors await a Federal Reserve decision on its stimulus program. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea rose by 0.27% to 2.02%. Key benchmark indices in China, Taiwan and Singapore fell by 0.05% to 0.19%.

China attracted $8.5 billion in foreign direct investment in November--up 2.35% on year, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Wednesday. The figure was more than October's $8.42 billion which was up 1.24% on year. FDI in the January-November period rose 5.48% on year to $105.5 billion. Non-financial overseas direct investment rose 28.3% on year in the January-November period to $80.2 billion.

Japanese exports rose 18.4% from a year earlier in November 2013, data today, 18 December 2013, showed. That marked the ninth consecutive month of increase, as manufacturers benefited from a weaker yen brought about by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's pro-growth strategies. A recovery in exports is important for the country's economy ahead of a planned sales-tax increase in April.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ), which buys more than 7 trillion yen ($67.6 billion) of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) every month in its bid to stoke inflation, holds a two-day monetary policy meeting which begins tomorrow, 19 December 2013.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could advance 33 points at the opening bell on Wednesday, 18 December 2013. US stocks closed a volatile session lower on Tuesday, 17 December 2013, as markets digested a slew of economic data and focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on the fate of the stimulus program.

The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) two-day policy meeting on interest rates in the United States concludes today, 18 December 2013. The US central bank currently buys bonds worth $85 billion a month in a bid to hold interest rates low and encourage economic growth in the world's biggest economy. Minutes of the Fed's October meeting released on 20 November 2013 showed officials may reduce their $85 billion a month of bond buying if the economy improves as anticipated.

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First Published: Dec 18 2013 | 12:16 PM IST

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