Key benchmark indices held firm in early afternoon trade, with investor sentiment boosted by strong US economic data released on Friday, 3 August 2012. US is the world's biggest economy. Easing of euro-zone debt worries also aided gains on the domestic bourses. The Sensex was up 218.10 points or 1.27%, off close to 30 points from the day's high and up over 100 points from the day's low. The market breadth was strong. Except BSE FMCG index all the other sectoral indices on BSE were in the green.
Pharma major Wockhardt jumped to record high after reporting strong Q1 results. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) surged on reports benchmark Singapore gross refining margins (GRM) have strengthened from the 2nd week of July 2012 to average at $8 a barrel from $6.7 a barrel in the quarter ended June 2012. Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC edged lower.
Shares of oil exploration firms rose as US crude oil futures gained. Interest rate sensitive banking stocks rose on bargain hunting after recent losses triggered by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) keeping repo rate unchanged at its first quarter review of the Monetary Policy 2012-13 on 31 July 2012. Auto stocks gained across the board. Castrol India hit a record high.
The market surged in early trade on firm Asian stocks. The Sensex and the 50-unit S&P CNX Nifty both hit their highest level in nearly four weeks. The market extended initial gains to hit fresh intraday high in morning trade. The market hovered near intraday high in mid-morning trade. Firmness continued in early afternoon trade.
Provisional data showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net buyers of Indian stocks on Friday, 3 August 2012, boosted sentiment on the domestic bourses. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 208.69 crore on Friday, 3 August 2012, as per provisional figures on the stock exchanges. FIIs made substantial purchases of Indian stocks last month. FIIs bought shares worth net Rs 9691 crore from the secondary equity markets in July 2012.
At 12:20 IST, the BSE Sensex was up 218.10 points or 1.27% to 17,416.03. The index surged 250.49 points at the day's high of 17,448.42 in morning trade, its highest level since 11 July 2012. The index rose 115.12 points at the day's low of 17,313.05 in early trade.
The S&P CNX Nifty was up 69 points or 1.32% to 5,284.70. The Nifty hit high of 5,291.35 in intraday trade, its highest level since 11 July 2012. The Nifty hit a low of 5,260.85 in intraday trade.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong. On BSE, 1,600 shares rose and 863 shares fell. A total of 99 shares were unchanged.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, 24 stocks rose and only six of them fell. Tata Steel, GAIL (India) and L&T gained by between 2.08% to 2.27%.
Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC fell 0.39% to Rs 258.35, off the day's high of Rs 261.75. The stock had hit a record high of Rs 262.05 in intraday trade on 2 August 2012. The company reported 20.21% growth in net profit to Rs 1602.14 crore on 15.34% growth in net sales to Rs 6652.21 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011. Despite series of tax hikes, ITC's performance in cigarettes business remains robust and displays pricing power for the company.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) surged 4.9% on reports benchmark Singapore gross refining margins (GRM) have strengthened from the 2nd week of July 2012 to average at $8 a barrel from $6.7 a barrel in the quarter ended June 2012.
RIL bought back 3.66 crore shares for about of Rs 2617.57 crore till 24 July 2012 under its ongoing share buyback program. RIL has set maximum buyback price of Rs 870 per share. The company has set aside Rs 10440 crore for share buyback. The buyback program opened on 1 February 2012 and closes on 19 January 2013. RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani said at the company's Annual General Meeting in June 2012 that the company's buyback program represents a highly accretive use of cash by the company and it will supplement earnings growth from operations, for higher EPS (earnings per share), in the near future.
Shares of oil exploration firms rose as US crude oil futures climbed to their highest closing level in two weeks on Friday, 3 August 2012, after Labor Department data showed US payrolls jumped 163,000 in July 2012. Cairn India, Oil India and ONGC rose by between 0.27% to 1.12%. Higher crude oil prices will result in higher realization from crude sales for oil exploration firms.
Auto stocks gained across the board. Tata Motors jumped 3.06%. Tata Motors' total sales (including exports) of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles rose 15% to 73,491 vehicles in July 2012 over July 2011. The company's domestic sales of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles rose 18% to 68,627 units in July 2012 over July 2011. Cumulative sales (including exports) during April-July 2012 rose 2% to 2.62 lakh units from the year ago period.
Ashok Leyland gained 0.66%. The company's total sales jumped 25% to 9,785 units in July 2012 over July 2011. The company's light commercial vehicle (LCV) Dost which was launches last year clocked sales of 2,803 units in July 2012. Ashok Leyland's commercial vehicles sales, excluding LCV Dost, declined 11% to 6,982 units in July 2012 over July 2011.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) rose 1.06%. The company on 1 August 2012, announced 19% growth in total auto sales to 47,059 units in July 2012 over July 2011. Domestic auto sales jumped 15% to 42,799 units in July 2012 over July 2011. The Passenger Vehicles segment (which includes the UVs and Verito) has registered a growth of 27%, having sold 22,011 units in July 2012, as against 17,312 units during July 2011, M&M said in a statement.
The company on 1 August 2012 said its total tractors sales declined 1.02% to 16,521 units in July 2012 over July 2011. Domestic tractor sales declined 1.29% to 15,495 units in July 2012 over July 2011. Exports rose 3.32% 1,026 units in July 2012 over July 2011.
M&M and Telephonics Corporation (Telephonics) on 1 August 2012 announced the formation of a joint venture (JV). The JV to be called Mahindra Telephonics Integrated Systems will provide the Indian Ministry of Defence and the Indian civil sector with radar and surveillance systems, identification friend or foe (IFF) devices and communication systems. In addition, the JV intends to provide systems for air traffic management services, homeland security and other emerging surveillance requirements.
Car major Maruti Suzuki gained 0.87%. Maruti on 1 August 2012 said it total sales rose 9.2% to 82,234 units in July 2012 over July 2011. Domestic sales rose 6.8% to 71,024 units and exports jumped 27.4% to 11,210 units in July 2012 over July 2011.
Maruti on 31 July 2012 said the management remains concerned about the safety and security of its employees and hence it is not in a position to take a decision on restarting operations as the Manesar plant in Haryana. The management will announce its decision to this effect only when it is assured of employee safety, Maruti said in a statement. The labour violence which rocked the plant on 18 July 2012 led to nearly 100 injured and one fatality. Maruti on 21 July 2012 declared lock-out at unit.
Bajaj Auto rose 1.65%. The company on 2 August 2012 said its total sales declined 5% to 3.44 lakh units in July 2012 over July 2011. Motorcycle sales declined 3% to 3.08 lakh units in July 2012 over July 2011. The company sold 5,600 units of Pulsar 200 NS and 14,400 units of Discover 125 ST in July 2012. Bajaj Auto's commercial vehicles sales dropped 23% to 35,292 units in July 2012 over July 2011.
Bajaj Auto's exports declined 13% to 1.25 lakh units in July 2012 over July 2011. The company said there has been partial recovery in exports to Sri Lanka and Egypt and it expects further recovery in exports this month.
The company at the time of Q1 June 2012 results last month said that it has undertaken proactive measures like rationalizing the end-user cost of vehicles in Sri Lanka and with these measures the company expects normalcy in exports to resume by end of Q2 September 2012. Bajaj Auto lost exports of about 20,000 units in Sri Lanka in Q1 June 2012 due to introduction of import barriers by that country. The company also lost export of about 25,000 commercial vehicles in Q1 June 2012 due to restrictions by importing countries and due to political unrest in Egypt, Bajaj Auto said in a statement.
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) gained 0.65%. The company's total sales declined 1.38% to 4.84 lakh units in July 2012 over July 2011. HMCL said new scooter, the recently-launched 110cc Maestro has already been contributing handsome volumes. Maestro, along with the Pleasure, has further strengthened the company's strong presence in the scooter segment, company said.
The company announced at the time of Q1 June 2012 results last month that consumers in rural and upcountry markets could postpone buying of motorcycles if the monsoon remains weak. Hero MotoCorp also said that currency volatility is a point of concern and the rupee depreciation is likely to impact the company's margins.
Castrol India jumped 3.96% to Rs 628. The stock hit a record high of Rs 634 in intraday trade today, 6 August 2012. The company's board last month announced a liberal 1:1 bonus.
Interest rate sensitive banking stocks rose on bargain hunting after recent losses triggered by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) keeping repo rate unchanged at its first quarter review of the Monetary Policy 2012-13 on 31 July 2012. India's second biggest private sector bank in terms of branch network HDFC Bank rose 1.38% to Rs 596.35. The stock hit a record high of Rs 598.50 in intraday trade today.
State Bank of India (SBI) rose 1.07%. SBI said on 2 August 2012, said it has decided to revise downwards the interest rate on domestic term deposits for tenors of 5 years and above to 8.5% from 7 August 2012.
Punjab National Bank (PNB) gained 1.34%. The bank has decided to increase rate of interest on single domestic term deposit of less than Rs 1 crore from 8.75% to 9% for maturity of one year from August 02, 2012. The same shall also be applicable to NRE term deposits. Similarly, the interest rate of 9% will also be applicable to NRE term deposits of 1,111 days as applicable to domestic term deposits, PNB said.
Among other PSU bank stocks, Canara Bank, Bank of India and Bank of Baroda gained by between 1.08% to 1.22%.
India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank gained 1.71%. The bank's profit after tax jumped 36% to Rs 1815 crore on 32% growth in net interest income to Rs 3193 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011. ICICI Bank's net interest margin (NIM) improved to 3.01% for Q1 June 2012, from 2.61% for Q1 June 2011. The bank announced the results on 27 July 2012.
UCO Bank rose 1.21% after net profit rose 23.9% to Rs 362.46 crore on 19.9% growth in total income to Rs 4407.39 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011.
Wockhardt jumped 6.77% to Rs 1,079 after consolidated net profit jumped 94.87% to Rs 377.97 crore on 35.37% growth in income from operations to Rs 1425.82 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011. The stock hit a record high of Rs 1,080.75 in intraday trade today, 6 August 2012.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) last week said the El Nino weather pattern is likely to reduce rains again in the second half of the June to September monsoon season. The IMD said rains over the entire June to September season are now expected to be less than 90% of long-term average. This is lower than IMD's previous forecast of 96%. Monsoon rains are considered deficient -- a drought in layman's terms -- if they fall below 90% of a 50-year average. Between June 1 and August 1, rainfall was about 19% below normal. The IMD expects normal rains in August -- a critical month for summer crops. It expects rainfall to be 5-6% below average in September due to the possibility of El Nino. The weather office said rainfall during August-September is expected to be 91% of the long-term average.
The rainfall distribution has been erratic this year as major crop- growing regions such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana have received scanty showers threatening the prospects of summer crops. With the monsoon season halfway through, India is staring at the possibility of a full-blown drought in some regions.
A panel of Indian ministers last week approved steps to contain the impact of a near-drought situation. The steps include providing a diesel-price subsidy to farmers, increasing the subsidy on seed supplies and removal of the import tax on oilmeals.
Insufficient rainfall could lead to higher food inflation. There will be an impact on foodgrain output, but it is too early to give any estimate, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar last week. Mr. Pawar said the government will raise subsidies for the supply of various seeds for alternate crops in affected areas.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs last week approved the Minimum Support Prices (MSPS) for Arhar (Tur) and Moong for 2012-13 season. The MSP for Arhar (Tur) has been fixed at Rs 3850 per quintal and of Moong at Rs 4400 per quintal marking an increase of Rs 650 per quintal and Rs 900 per quintal, respectively.
Rice sowing has picked up according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture. Rice was sown in 233.68 lakh hectares (lh) till Friday, 3 August 2012, compared with 191.06 lh a week back. Rice sowing so far has been below the normal area of 240.89 lh for the summer sown crop by this time of the year. Cumulative sowing of coarse cereals totaled 135.75 lh till 3 August 2012, compared with 117.48 lh a week back. It, however, remains much lower than 169.30 lh of normal area for the crop this time of the year.
Sowing of pulses totaled 72.79 lh till 3 August 2012, compared with 62.99 lh a week back. It, however, remains lower than 84.15 lh of normal area for this time of the year. Sowing of oilseeds totaled 145.17 lh till 3 August 2012, compared with 138.33 lh a week back. It is almost equal to the normal area of 145.49 lh for oilseeds by this time of the year. Sowing of cotton totaled 100.14 lh till 3 August 2012, compared with 97.24 lh as on 27 July 2012. The normal cotton sowing area of 99.89 lh by this time of the year has already been surpassed. Sowing of jute and mesta totaled 8.40 lh as on 3 August 2012, exceeding the normal area of 8.22 lk for the crop by this time of the year.
The monsoon rains--which make up around 70% of India's annual rainfall--are crucial to the nation's agriculture sector and broader economy. More than 60% of the country's farmland is rain-fed. The timing, distribution and quantity of rainfall are all important for crops. The four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June accounts for almost 70% of total annual moisture that Indian soil receives in a year.
A bad monsoon will have a larger impact on inflation than on growth as agriculture output constitutes a relatively small portion of India's economy, Indian central bank officials said on 1 August 2012, in a conference call following the release of its monetary policy review on 31 July 2012. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 8% after first quarter review of Monetary Policy 2012-13 in an effort to keep a lid on inflation and inflation expectations. The RBI, however, lowered banks' statutory liquidity ratio, or the part of deposits that must be invested mainly in government bonds, by a percentage point to 23% to ensure that liquidity pressures do not constrain the flow of credit to productive sectors of the economy.
Principal adviser to the Planning Commission Pronab Sen last month said slowing investment due to weak confidence in the economy is hurting growth. Mr. Sen said Indian companies aren't facing any shortage of funds. Many of them are sitting on piles of cash and aren't even repatriating overseas borrowings, he added.
The government should take steps to meet the fiscal deficit target set out in the budget and that would improve sentiment and revive investments, Mr. Sen said. He said the government should scale back its spending and slash subsidies on fuels, food and fertilizers to help check its budget deficit.
Slowing growth in investment remains a cause for concern for India. Investment makes up 35% of India's economic activity.
A comprehensive Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill is among the 31 Bills the government has lined up for consideration and passing during the monsoon session of Parliament, which begins on Wednesday, 8 August 2012. Among the other bills include those on Forward Contracts, Banking laws, whistle-blowers and women's reservation as also the Prevention of Bribery of Foreign Public Officials bill. The monsoon session of Parliament will conclude on September 7.
Voting for the country's new vice president takes places tomorrow, 7 August 2012.
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has decided to refer the issue of implications on FIIs and portfolio investors of the amendment made to the Income Tax Act relating to the taxation of non-resident transfer of assets where the underlying asset is in India to the Expert Committee on anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR). "It is necessary to have clarity on the tax liability of portfolio investors and foreign institutional investors as a result of this amendment particularly when the investment is made through a registered stock exchange in accordance with SEBI guidelines and purely in the form of portfolio investment", the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) said in a statement issued Monday, 30 July 2012. Any clarification needs to be harmonised with the GAAR guidelines and will have to address any residual concerns outside of GAAR, the PMO said.
Dr. Singh last month constituted an expert committee on anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) to undertake stakeholder consultations and finalise the guidelines for GAAR by 30 September 2012.
An India-Mauritius joint panel will discuss a series of proposals to review the double taxation avoidance treaty between the two nations on 22-24 August in Mauritius. India has been looking to negotiate the double taxation avoidance agreement with Mauritius for the past few years to check so-called round tripping and other potential abuses. Round tripping entails moving money out of one country to another, and getting it back under the garb of foreign capital. Capital gains tax is close to zero in Mauritius and almost 40% of investments into India come through the island nation. Under the bilateral agreement, capital gains from sale of securities can be taxed only in Mauritius. The India-Mauritius joint working group will also discuss the inclusion of a so-called limitation of benefit clause, similar to the Singapore tax treaty with India, to ensure only genuine Mauritius-based companies are benefited. India's tax agreement with Singapore says that only those companies that spend a minimum of $200,000 (about Rs 1 crore) in Singapore can avail the benefits of the treaty.
Sanctity of tax residency certificates issued by a country to companies operating in its jurisdiction to enable the firms to claim tax benefits under various treaties is another issue between India and Mauritius. While India in this year's national budget said the certificates are a necessary but not sufficient condition, Mauritius wants those issued by it honoured. Draft guidelines issued by Indian government for implementing the controversial anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the GAAR state that GAAR provisions should be invoked on a foreign institutional investor (FII), if it chooses to take a treaty benefit, but would not in any case be invoked in the case of the non-resident investors of the FII. The draft guidelines suggested that the onus of proving wrongdoing should be on the authorities.
Investors' focus is currently on Q1 June 2012 earnings. Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Power and Bharti Airtel unveil Q1 results on Wednesday, 8 August 2012. Tata Motors and Ranbaxy Laboratories unveil quarterly results on Thursday, 9 August 2012. State Bank of India, Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries, Siemens and BPCL announce quarterly results on Friday, 10 August 2012. ONGC announces Q1 results on Saturday, 11 August 2012. Tata Steel and Coal India unveil Q1 results on 13 August 2012. Hindalco Industries and IDFC will unveil Q1 results on 14 August 2012.
Asian shares climbed on Monday, 6 August 2012, joining in a global stock rally triggered by stronger US economic data and optimism for progress in Europe. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan rose by between 0.55% to 2.01%.
China's central bank on Sunday pledged to intensify monetary policy fine-tuning and improve credit policy to bolster the world's second largest economy.
Indonesia's economy expanded more than analysts estimated as rising investments helped the nation withstand declining exports and Europe's sovereign-debt crisis. Gross domestic product rose 6.4% in the three months ended June 30 from a year earlier, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta today. That compares with a 6.31% gain reported previously for the first quarter.
Australian inflation reached 0.2% in July from the previous month, according to the TD Securities - Melbourne Institute monthly survey. In June, the survey showed a 0.2% monthly drop. On an annual basis, the gauge rose 1.5%, compared to a 1.6% increase in June.
Trading in US index futures indicated a flat opening of US stocks on Monday, 6 August 2012. US stocks surged on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping to a three-month high, after US nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in July. US employers in July hired the most workers in five months, but an increase in the jobless rate to 8.3% kept prospects of further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve on the table. Nonfarm payrolls rose 163,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, breaking three straight months of job gains below 100,000 and offering hope for the ailing economy. The unemployment rate rose from 8.2% in June, even as more people gave up the search for work and a survey of households showed a drop in employment. The Federal Reserve last week sent a stronger signal that a new round of major support could be on the way if the recovery did not pick up.
Service-sector activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in July than a month earlier, according to the Institute for Supply Management, bucking economists' expectations for the group's nonmanufacturing index to show slowing expansion.
Election for a new president in the United States, the world's biggest economy, is scheduled on 6 November 2012.
Euro zone debt worries eased a bit at the end of last week amid renewed speculation that the European Central Bank will buy Spanish and Italian government bonds as soon as next month. European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi last week said the ECB may soon step in to buy government bonds in the open market, possibly in unlimited quantities, and it will also consider other unconventional measures to lower exceptionally high borrowing costs of financially stressed euro-zone economies. Draghi indicated that the ECB may buy government bonds in the open market under strict conditions and after stressed states submitted a request for aid
Germany's Federal Constitutional Court will announce a decision on lawsuits challenging the country's participation in the permanent euro-zone rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, and the fiscal pact on 12 September 2012. The court held a public hearing earlier this month to examine complaints that participation in the fund and the fiscal pact violated German law by taking some authority over the national budget away from parliament.
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