If monsoon fails, CRISIL says GDP growth could be lower at 5.2%
India's GDP growth for FY14 came in at 4.7%. This is lower than the government's advance estimate of 4.9% growth and only slightly above 4.5% growth in FY13. Q4FY14 failed to see any revival in industry and services, and GDP growth was in fact lower in the second half of FY14 at 4.6%, compared to 4.9% in the first half of FY14.In FY15, under the assumption of normal monsoon, CRISIL expect GDP growth to rise to 6%. This will be led by higher industrial growth driven by infrastructure projects, many of which were cleared last year. But, if monsoons fail - the Indian Meteorological Department has assigned 60% chance of El Nino phenomenon occurring this year, CRISIL expects GDP growth could be lower at 5.2%.
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