DebtFX: US Presidential Elections in Focus

Both global and domestic markets are likely to be singularly focused on the outcome of US presidential elections, to be held on 8 November 2016, says India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). Domestically, currency and debt markets are likely to take cues from global developments, amid this otherwise data-light week. The 10-year G-sec yield could trade at 6.78%-6.89% (6.82% at close on 4 November 2016). The rupee is likely to trade at 66.50/USD-67.30/USD (66.71/USD at close on 4 November 2016).

Risk-Off Sentiments Trigger Market Correction: The keenly awaited US elections will set the tone for the markets this week. In the run-up to elections, both equity and debt markets have corrected as both lead candidates have close possibilities to win the elections. Additionally, uncertainties over timeline and modalities of Brexit have kept investors' sentiments cautious. This is evident in the recent appreciation of Swiss franc and Japanese yen, which are largely viewed by investors as a safe haven to hedge against the US dollar volatilities.

 

Bond Yields to Remain Anchored: Government's upcoming repurchase auction (INR150bn) will alleviate some pressure on demand-supply dynamics in the debt market - as a combined gross supply of over INR410bn is scheduled this week in the form of both central and state government borrowings. Easy interbank liquidity conditions suggest limited need for durable liquidity injection, keeping scope for open market purchase operations dim in the near term. Incremental scope for yields to soften significantly from the current juncture is limited on account of two major factors (1) front-loaded open market operations by the Reserve Bank of India (2) global volatility as key events unfold.

Transmission of Global Risks to Keep Rupee under Radar: Notwithstanding the swings in major global currencies and initiation of FCNR (foreign currency non-resident) deposits' redemption, the rupee has exhibited a relatively steady performance. A resurgence of risk-aversion sentiment globally will impact emerging market currencies, in general - exposing rupee to potential pressure. However, the impact is likely to be cushioned in the absence of any kneejerk and panic-selling pressure from foreign investors.

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