Deutsche Bank maintains the FY15 and FY16 growth estimate of 5.5% and 6.5% respectively
The Deutsche Bank in a research report has forecasted mixed outlook for Q2FY2015, after good performance in Q1FY2015. As per the report, the July-September quarter is not off to a flying start.The report cited that after recording a robust growth in June (7.3%), the core infrastructure production growth moderated sharply to 2.7% in July, while cautioning that this indicates risks of a similar slowdown in industrial production growth.
The Deutsche Bank estimates IIP growth 2.0% in July 2014 compared to 3.4% growth recorded in June 2014.
The Deutsche Bank report also highlighted slowing down of HSBC Manufacturing PMI in August 2014 after its mixed outlook for Q2FY2015.
Manufacturing PMI, which had recorded a sharp improvement in July (to 53.0 from 51.5 June), slowed down in August to 52.4, led by moderation in new orders (54.5 vs. 55.9) and output (54.1 vs. 54.9).
Auto sales growth (domestic and exports combined) improved to 15.0%yoy in July, from an average 12.1% in April-June, but passenger car sales growth dropped sharply from the June outturn (1.3%yoy vs. 14.0%yoy).
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As per the report, the production indicators are reflecting continued improvement in the real economy on a yoy basis, but the sequential improvement seems to have eased in July and August.
The Deutsche Bank expects July-Sep quarter real GDP growth to be similar to the previous quarter, while expecting it would mark an improvement from the corresponding period of the previous year.
The Deutsche Bank maintains the FY15 and FY16 growth estimate of 5.5% and 6.5% respectively.
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