Fitch: India, SE Asia Airlines to See Improved Earnings Outlook

The earnings outlook for Indian and south-east Asian airline sectors should improve in 2016, driven by higher demand, lower fuel costs and ongoing industry restructuring, Fitch Ratings says. But the operating environment will be challenging due to strong competition and capacity expansion.

Macroeconomic growth should help bolster demand and top-line growth for the region's airlines, and data so far in 2015 is already showing strong demand growth. Passenger load factors (PLF) in India and south-east Asia have risen steadily, with the average PLF across seven major airlines based in the region hitting multi-year highs above 80% in 3Q15.

The continued decline in global oil prices will also provide a much-needed boost to airline earnings, with Brent crude falling further so far in 4Q15. Industry consolidation and restructuring should also result in improved profitability.

 

Nonetheless, aggressive competition and capacity expansion remain key risks for the sector over the longer term. Capacity growth in south-east Asia and India has slowed in 2015 as airlines focused on profitability, but a huge order book for new aircraft remains, which could make it difficult to improve profitability for the sector.

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