The RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated in latest monetary policy update that June 2022 was the sixth consecutive month when headline CPI inflation remained at or above the upper tolerance level of 6 per cent. Looking ahead, the inflation trajectory continues to be heavily contingent upon the evolving geopolitical developments, international commodity market dynamics, global financial market developments and the spatial and temporal distribution of the south-west monsoon. Since the last MPC meeting, however, there has been some let-up in global commodity prices - particularly in prices of industrial metals - and some softening in global food prices. Domestic edible oil prices are expected to soften further on the back of improving supplies from key producing countries and Government's supply-side interventions. The resumption of wheat supply from the Black Sea region, if it sustains, could help to temper international prices. Supply chain pressures, though elevated, are on an easing trajectory. Further, the advance of the south west monsoon is by and large on track and kharif sowing has picked up in recent weeks. The shortfall in kharif sowing of paddy, however, needs to be watched closely, although buffer stocks are quite large. Household inflation expectations have eased, but they still remain elevated.
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