The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) remains broadly unchanged m-o-m in November 2013
The International Grains Council (IGC) Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was broadly unchanged m-o-m (month-on-month) as a 3% decline for wheat, and a 1% fall for maize, were offset by a 2% increase for soyabeans. Weakness in world wheat prices was despite crop concerns in some areas, and led by the US on slowing export demand and mostly favourable conditions for the next crop. Maize quotations remain close to three-year lows, as firmer export prices in the US and Brazil were outweighed by slight falls in Argentina and the Black Sea. While the rice sub-Index was virtually unchanged m-o-m, underlying trends were mixed across origins, with prices in Thailand easing, but some renewed strength in Vietnam on prospects for fresh sales to the Philippines. Soyabean markets benefited from firm export demand, more than offsetting pressure from bearish crop outlooks in major exporters.The output forecast for global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) has been revised 5mt higher this month to 1,946m, including increases for wheat, maize and other coarse grains. So far this year, harvests have generally been better than expected, with the global total now placed up 9% y-o-y (year-on-year). While some of the output increase is set to be absorbed by higher use, a substantial surplus is expected and end-season stocks are seen up by 41mt y-o-y at a four-year high.
The total grains world trade forecast has also been raised to 277mt (million tonnes), a 10mt increase from last year. Maize trade is expected to surge by 10%, with China's projected imports particularly strong at 7mt (3.7mt last year), but, with competitive prices, purchases are also likely to rise elsewhere, notably in Mexico where it is displacing sorghum.
The global rice output forecast is 3mt lower in this report, but would still be a record, and supplies are set to remain ample, especially in the major exporters. Trade is likely to rise with larger sales to Far East Asia, including the Philippines, where the National Food Authority (NFA) has approved an additional 0.5mt of rice imports to boost reserves and support relief operations in the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan. A Market Focus highlights how tight stocks in the Philippines had become, even before the current emergency.
Global soyabean 2013-14 output is projected up 5% y-o-y, at 285mt, with end-season stocks expected to rebound by 13%, boosted by improved availabilities in the major exporters. As buying interest from China strengthens, world trade is forecast to expand by 10% y-o-y.
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IGC has forecasted total grain production in India at 134.3mt for 2013-14, lower from 136mt estimated for 2012-13 and have increased the total grain export forecast to 10.2mt from 9.6mt forecasted earlier. India's total wheat production (April-March) is forecasted to be low at 92.5mt in 2013-14 from 94.9mt estimated for 2012-13. While exports of Wheat has been forecasted at 5.5mt higher from the earlier forecast and lower from 5.5mt estimated for 2012-13.
Similarly, the rice production (Oct-Sep) (milled basis) has been projected at 104mt for 2013-14 from 104.4mt forecasted for 2012-13 and 105.3mt estimated for 2011-12. The rice exports have been projected to be lower at 8.9mt in 2013-14 from forecasted 10.6mt for 2012-13.
Looking ahead to 2014-15, winter wheat planting is nearly complete in the northern hemisphere, and the global wheat harvested area is projected to expand by 1.4%, to about 223m ha. The condition of the US crop appears to be much improved y-o-y, although analysis of the relationship between November winter wheat ratings and prospective yields illustrates that this is not necessarily a reliable indicator of ultimate results.
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