The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today announced that it expects monsoon rainfall to be normal this year. Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96-104%), the IMD said in its first stage Long Range Forecast (LRF). The monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 100% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm. Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean and Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. Some climate model forecasts indicate these conditions are likely to persist during the ensuing monsoon season. However, a few other global climate models indicate possibility of development of weak La Nina conditions over the Pacific Ocean during the second half of the season.
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