The agency notes that the new minimum required provisioning stands at 50% towards each of the 12 identified accounts, which indicates that banks with average provisioning of 50% on these accounts may also need to provide additional provisions to reach 50% towards each of the 12 accounts.
Ind-Ra believes that the additional provision burden could add disproportionate pressure on the profit and loss accounts (P&L) of a few mid-size public sector banks (PSBs) and hence the agency's outlook towards these banks remains negative. The agency also notes that the additional provision requirement may stretch the profitability of a few large PSBs in FY18, putting the standalone ratings of these entities under pressure. Ind-Ra continues to maintain there is an increasing divide between the large and smaller PSBs, with the former having some access to growth capital, better market valuation, and also some non-core assets to divest while the latter would only receive bailout capital if required and would need to ration their capital consumption over next two years.
The 12 accounts are broadly classified across five sectors, which have been further reclassified as iron and steel, infrastructure and others in Ind-Ra's study. The weighted average provisioning of 45% (as of March 2017) towards the iron and steel sector exposure continues to be the highest across all sectors, given the deep entrenchment of stress in the sector, low capacity utilisation and high expected ultimate haircuts. The weighted average provisioning as of March 2017 for the infrastructure sector exposure is 36%. Ind-Ra highlights much of the unrecognised stress (INR7.7 trillion as of September 2016, 35% of which is expected to slip into the substandard category over the next 12-18 months) forms a part of the infrastructure sector where a going concern approach towards resolution could fetch a more favourable value in comparison to a liquidation approach given the nature of the assets in the sector and the fact that many of the projects in the sector are under stress on account of cash flow mismatches and project overruns.
Out of the total INR180 billion required provisioning, the iron and steel sector contributes around INR105 billion and the infrastructure sector INR41 billion. The iron & steel sector had faced severe stress at the time of the 'Asset Quality Review' exercise conducted by the RBI last fiscal.
India Ratings highlighted in the report 'FY18 Bank Outlook: Long Tail of Credit Costs to Subdue Profitability Despite Plateauing Stressed Assets' that impaired assets will peak at 12.5%-13% by FY18/FY19. Credit costs however will show an extended recovery period (FY18F: 185bp; FY16: 230bp), as a large proportion of recently acquired higher-bucket NPLs keep aging. This would keep the return on assets for PSBs and private banks at around 20bp below their respective long-term medians. Factoring this in Ind-Ra expects banks to require INR910 billion in tier-1 capital till March 2019 to grow at a bare minimum pace of 8-9% CAGR. This includes the INR200 billion of residual tranches from the government of India's Indradhanush programme.
The banks have been given six months to finalise the resolution plans for other non-performing accounts that do not currently qualify under this criteria, close to around 500 accounts. If no resolution plan emerges in that period then banks will have to begin insolvency proceedings on these accounts too said RBI, which Ind-Ra believes will translate into more resolutions in FY19.
Ind-Ra believes the fear of insolvency will force all stakeholders to seek remedial measures and resolve stress swiftly, which will be positive, in the event it occurs. The fear of liquidation or winding up could have a positive impact as stakeholders would be willing to arrive at common ground to escape liquidation, nevertheless haircuts specially towards the larger exposures are inevitable.
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