The latest round of FICCI's Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for 2022-23 at 7.4 percent - with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of 6.0 percent and 7.8 percent respectively. The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.3 percent for 2022-23. On the other hand, industry and services sector are anticipated to grow by 5.9 percent and 8.5 percent respectively during the fiscal year. However, it may be noted that downside risks to growth remain escalated. While the threat from the pandemic remains on fore, the continuation of Russia -Ukraine conflict is posing a significant challenge to global recovery, the survey mentioned.
The present round of FICCI's Economic Outlook Survey was conducted in the month of March 2022 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. The current conflict is expected to further aggravate the price rise through imported commodities. The estimate for average wholesale price index-based inflation in Q4 of 2021-22 has been put at 12.6 percent.
CPI based inflation, on the other hand, is projected at 6.0 percent in Q4 2021-22 and 5.5 percent in Q1 2022-23; and has a median forecast of 5.3 percent for 2022-23, with a minimum and maximum range of 5.0 percent and 5.7 percent respectively. CPI based inflation has been treading above the targeted range of the RBI in Jan/Feb 2022 and should see some respite in the forthcoming fiscal year. The unsustainably high international commodity prices are expected to level off going forward.
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