India will overtake the European Union as the world's third-largest energy consumer by 2030, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday as it estimated India accounting for the biggest share of energy demand growth over the next two decades. In its India Energy Outlook 2021, IEA sees India's primary energy consumption almost doubling to 1,123 million tonnes of oil equivalent as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expands to USD 8.6 trillion by 2040. Prior to the global pandemic, India's energy demand was projected to increase by almost 50% between 2019 and 2030, but growth over this period is now closer to 35%. Energy use has doubled since 2000, with 80% of demand still being met by coal, oil and solid biomass. On a per capita basis, India's energy use and emissions are less than half the world average, as are other key indicators such as vehicle ownership, steel and cement output.
As India recovers from a Covid-induced slump in 2020, it is re-entering a very dynamic period in its energy development. Over the coming years, millions of Indian households are set to buy new appliances, air conditioning units and vehicles. India will soon become the world's most populous country, adding the equivalent of a city the size of Los Angeles to its urban population each year. To meet growth in electricity demand over the next twenty years, India will need to add a power system the size of the European Union to what it has now.
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