Sugarcane acreage expected 5.5% lower at 49.91 lakh hectares in sugar season 2016-17
The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) is estimating the total acreage under sugarcane in the country at around 49.91 lakh hectares in the sugar season (SS) 2016-17, which is 5.5% lower compared with 2015-16 sugar season's cane area of around 52.84 lakh hectares.Uttar Pradesh, the leading sugarcane producing State in the country, is estimated to have a slightly higher area under sugarcane at 23.35 lakh hectares, as against 23.02 lakh hectares last year. ISMA is expecting a better yield in 2016-17 SS due to a substantial increase in area under the high yielding cane variety CO0238. That will increase the sugarcane production and availability for crushing by sugar mills. Further, unlike Maharashtra and North Karnataka, the weather has been good in U.P. with adequate rainfall. Thus, sugar production in U.P. in 2016-17 SS is estimated to be around 75.40 lakh tonnes, which was 68.22 lakh tonnes in 2015-16 SS.
The other major sugar producing State, viz. Maharashtra's cane area has declined in 2016-17 SS, which is mainly due to drought like situation last year, poor rainfall and lesser water availability for irrigation. As against the cane area of 10.5 lakh hectares in 2015-16 SS, the cane area is expected to come down to 7.80 lakh hectares in 2016-17. Sugar production is, therefore, estimated to be around 61.5 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 SS, as against 84.08 lakh tonnes produced in 2015-16 SS.
Similar to Maharashtra, due to lesser rainfall and drought like situation, sugarcane area in Karnataka has also declined in 2016-17. Area under sugarcane in 2016-17 SS is expected to be about 4.15 lakh hectares as against 5.10 lakh hectares in 2015-16 SS. Sugar production in 2016-17 SS is estimated to be around 32.2 lakh tonnes, as against 40.71 lakh tonnes expected to be produced in 2015-16 SS.
Sugarcane area in Tamil Nadu in 2016-17 SS has increased to 2.65 lakh hectares as against 2.50 lakh hectares in 2015-16 SS. Due to better rainfall and expected improvement in yield, sugarcane production will also increase, resulting in better sugar production of 15.6 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 SS as against 13.93 lakh tonnes produced in 2015-16 SS.
During 2015-16 SS, till 30th June, 2016, about 248.15 lakh tonnes of sugar has been produced and another 2.75 lakh tonnes is expected to be produced in the special season till September, 2016 in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, taking total sugar production in 2015-16 SS to 251 lakh tonnes. During Oct-May SS 2015-16, about 169 lakh tonnes has been despatched and another 85-86 lakh tonnes is expected to be despatched by mills. With expected sugar exports of 15 lakh tonnes in current season, the closing balance would be 71 lakh tonnes.
As per above, ISMA estimates production of 232.6 lakh tonnes of sugar in the season 2016-17. This is about 18-19 lakh tonnes less than the current 2015-16 SS production of around 251 lakh tonnes.
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With an estimated opening balance on 01 October 2016 of 71 lakh tonnes, and estimated production of 232.6 lakh tonnes, the sugar availability during the 12 months of next season will be 303.6 lakh tonnes, enough to meet the domestic sugar consumption requirement of 260 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 SS.
For the sugar season 2017-18, the opening balance of about 43 lakh tonnes as on 1st October 2017, will be sufficient to meet the country's domestic requirement for the two months of October-November, 2017 next to next year, during which time new season's sugar production including the sugar produced in October-November 2017, would have comfortably come into the market.
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