Global oil demand is projected to reach almost 107 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2027, representing a robust increase of 10 mb/d compared to 2021, OPEC said in its 2022 World Oil Outlook released on Monday. OECD oil demand is on a declining trajectory after 2024, falling to 34 mb/d by the end of the forecast period. This represents an overall demand decline of almost 11 mb/d between 2021 and 2045. In contrast, long-term non-OECD demand is expected to increase by 24 mb/d, driven by an expanding middle class, high population growth and stronger economic growth potential. As a result, global oil demand is projected to increase by 12.9 mb/d, rising to 109.8 mb/d in 2045. India will take the leading role with demand growth in China slowing significantly and even turning to a marginal decline over the last five years of the forecast period, OPEC said. This will result in respective demand increases of around 1.4 mb/d, 0.8 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d, for India, Africa and Other Asia, during the 2040-2045 period. Even by 2045, oil demand will still grow at a rate of more than 2% p.a. in India and Africa and 1% p.a. in Other Asia.
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