Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2016-17 is estimated as Rs. 152.54 lakh crore

First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation, 2016-17

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2016-17along with Second Revised Estimates for the financial year 2015-16 and Third Revised Estimates for the financial year 2014-15 (with Base Year 2011-12) as per the revision policy*. Estimates for the years 2011-12 to 2015-16 released vide press note dated 31st January, 2017 were subsequently revised by incorporating the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) released on 31stMay, 2017 and presented in National Accounts Statistics (NAS) 2017.

The First Revised Estimates for the year 2016-17 have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method employed at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 31st May, 2017. The estimates of GDP and other aggregates for the years 2014-15and 2015-16 have undergone revision due to use of latest available data on agricultural production; industrial production especially those based on the provisional results of Annual Survey of Industries (ASI): 2015-16 and final results of ASI: 2014-15; government expenditure (replacing Revised Estimates with Actuals for the year 2015-16) and also more comprehensive data available from various source agencies and State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics.

 

The salient features of the estimates at aggregate level are indicated below:

Gross Domestic Product

Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2016-17 is estimated as Rs. 152.54 lakh crore while that for the year 2015-16 is estimated as Rs. 137.64 lakh crore, exhibiting a growth of 10.8 per cent during 2016-17 as against 10.4 per cent during 2015-16.

Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2016-17 and 2015-16 stands at Rs. 121.96 lakh crore and Rs. 113.86 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth of 7.1 per cent during 2016-17 and 8.2 per cent during 2015-16.

Industry-wise Analysis

The changes in the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices in different sectors of the economy at current and constant (2011-12) prices are presented in Statements 4.1 and 4.2 respectively. At the aggregate level, nominal GVA at basic prices increased by 10.1 per cent during 2016-17 as against 9.2 per cent during 2015-16. In terms of real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices, there has been a growth of 7.1 per cent in 2016-17, as against growth of 8.1 per cent in 2015-16.

The growth in real GVA during 2016-17has been lower than that in 2015-16 mainly due to lower growth in 'manufacturing' (7.9%), 'construction' (1.3%), 'transport, storage, communication & services related to broadcasting' (4.3%), 'trade, repair, hotels and restaurants' (8.9%), 'financial services' (1.3%) and'real estate, ownership of dwelling & professional services' (8.0%) as may be seen from Statement 4.2.At constant prices, the growth rates of primary (comprising agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), secondary (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, and construction) and tertiary (services) sectors have been estimated as 7.4 per cent, 6.1 per cent and 7.5 per centduring 2016-17 as against a growth of 2.6 per cent, 9.4 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.

Net National Income

Nominal Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2016-17 stands at Rs. 134.9 lakh crore as against Rs. 121.5 lakh crore in 2015-16, showing an increase of 11.0 per cent during 2016-17 as against an increase of 10.7 per cent in the previous year.

Gross National Disposable Income

Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated as Rs. 154.6 lakh crore for the year 2016-17, while the estimate for the year 2015-16 stands at Rs. 140.2 lakh crore, showing a growth of 10.3 per cent as against 10.2 per cent in the year 2015-16.

Saving

Gross Saving during 2016-17 is estimated as Rs. 45.73 lakh crore as against Rs. 43.02 lakh crore during 2015-16. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for the year 2016-17 is estimated as 29.6 per cent as against 30.7 per cent, estimated for 2015-16.

The highest contributor to Gross Saving is the household sector, with a share of 54.2 per cent in the year 2016-17. However, this share has declined from 56.9 per cent in 2015-16. This decline can be attributed to decline in households gross financial savings, which has declined from Rs. 15.21 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs. 14.05 lakh crore in 2016-17. On the other hand, as shown in Statement 5, the share of Non-Financial Corporations and Financial Corporations have increased from 39.8 per cent in 2015-16 to 41.0 per cent in 2016-17 and 6.8 per cent in 2015-16 to 7.3 per cent in 2016-17, respectively. The dis-saving of General Government has decreased from 3.5 per cent of Gross Saving in 2015-16 to 2.5 per cent in 2016-17.

Capital Formation

Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current and constant prices is estimated by two approaches :- (i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net capital inflow from abroad; and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by the type of assets. The estimates of GCF through the flow of funds approach are treated as the firmer estimates, and the difference between the two approaches is taken as errors and omissions. However, GCF by industry of use and by institutional sectors do not include valuables, and therefore, these estimates are lower than the estimates available from commodity flow approach.

Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated as Rs. 46.71 lakh crore for the year 2016-17 as compared to Rs. 44.42 lakh crore during 2015-16. The rate of GCF to GDP declined from 32.3 per cent during 2015-16 to 30.6 per cent in the year 2016-17. The rate of GCF excluding valuables to GDP stands at 30.8 per cent and 29.5 per cent for the years2015-16 and 2016-17 respectively. The rate of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2016-17 has been higher than the rate of saving because of net capital inflow from Rest of the World (ROW).

In terms of the share to the total GCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-Financial Corporations. However, its share has declined from 56.0 percent in 2015-16 to 55.1 percent in 2016-17(Statement 9). Share of household sector in GCF is also significant, which has risen from 30.5 percent in 2015-16 to 31.4 percent in 2016-17. The share of General Government in GCF has increased from 11.9 per cent in 2015-16 to 12.9 per cent in 2016-17.

Within the Gross Capital Formation at current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) amounted to Rs. 43.52 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against Rs. 39.18 lakh crore in 2015-16. The rate of GFCF to GDP at current prices continues to be the same at 28.5 per cent in both the years 2015-16 and 2016-17. The change in stocks of inventories, at current prices, decreased from Rs. 2.55 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs. 1.00 lakh crore in 2016-17, while the valuables decreased from Rs. 2.03 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs. 1.76 lakh crore in 2016-17.

The rate of Gross Capital Formation to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices has decreased from 34.5 per cent in 2015-16 to 33.5 per cent in 2016-17.

Consumption Expenditure

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 90.05 lakh crore for the year 2016-17as against Rs. 80.91 lakh crore in 2015-16. In relation to GDP, the rates of PFCE at current prices during 2015-16 and 2016-17 are estimated at 58.8 per cent and 59.0 per cent respectively.

At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated as Rs. 63.51 lakh crore and Rs. 68.12 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17. The corresponding rates of PFCE to GDP for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17 are 55.8 per cent and 55.9 per cent respectively.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated as Rs. 16.64 lakh crore for the year 2016-17 as against Rs. 14.28 lakh crore during 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the estimates of GFCE for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17 stand at Rs. 11.25 lakh crore and Rs. 12.62 lakh crore respectively.

Estimates at per capita level

21.Per Capita Income, i.e., Per Capita Net National Income at current prices, is estimated as Rs. 94,731 and Rs. 1,03,870 respectively for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17. Correspondingly, Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17 is estimated at Rs. 63,065 and Rs. 69,322 respectively.

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