The cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks has been retained at 4.0 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).
RBI on GDP projection - 5.7% projected GDP
During 2013-14, economic activity is expected to show only a modest improvement over last year, with a pick-up likely only in the second half of the year. Conditional upon a normal monsoon, agricultural growth could return to trend levels. The outlook for industrial activity remains subdued, with the pipeline of new investment drying up and existing projects stalled by bottlenecks and implementation gaps. With global growth unlikely to improve significantly from 2012, growth in services and exports may remain sluggish. Accordingly, the baseline GDP growth for 2013-14 is projected at 5.7 per cent.
Inflation
By March 2013, WPI inflation at 6.0 per cent turned out to be lower than the Reserve Bank's indicative projection of 6.8 per cent, mainly due to a sharp deceleration in non-food manufactured products inflation in the second half of the year. The global inflation outlook for the current year appears more benign compared to last year on expectations of some softening of crude oil and food prices. Accordingly, imported inflation is likely to be lower provided the exchange rate remains broadly stable. Indicators of corporate performance, industrial outlook and PMIs are pointing to a declining pricing power. On the other hand, food inflation is likely to be a source of upside pressure because of persisting supply imbalances. Also, the timing and magnitude of administered price revisions, particularly of electricity and coal, will impact the evolution of the trajectory of inflation in 2013-14.
Keeping in view the domestic demand-supply balance, the outlook for global commodity prices and the forecast of a normal monsoon, WPI inflation is expected to be range-bound around 5.5 per cent during 2013-14, with some edging down in the first half on account of past policy actions, although there could be some increase in the second half, largely reflecting base effects.
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Monetary projection
Consistent with the above growth projections and the Reserve Bank's inflation tolerance threshold, M3 growth for 2013-14 is projected at 13.0 per cent for policy purposes. Consequently, aggregate deposits of SCBs are projected to grow by 14.0 per cent. Keeping in view the resource requirements of the private sector, the growth in non-food credit of SCBs is projected at 15.0 per cent.
Guidance from RBI
The policy action undertaken in this review carries forward the measures put in place since January 2012 towards supporting growth in the face of gradual moderation of headline inflation. Recent monetary policy action, by itself, cannot revive growth. It needs to be supplemented by efforts towards easing the supply bottlenecks, improving governance and stepping up public investment, alongside continuing commitment to fiscal consolidation. With upside risks to inflation still significant in the near term in view of sectoral demand supply imbalances, ongoing correction in administered prices and pressures stemming from MSP increases, monetary policy cannot afford to lower its guard against the possibility of resurgence of inflation pressures. Monetary policy will also have to remain alert to the risks on account of the CAD and its financing, which could warrant a swift reversal of the policy stance. Overall, the balance of risks stemming from the Reserve Bank's assessment of the growth-inflation dynamic yields little space for further monetary easing.
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