Key benchmark indices regained strength after paring gains in mid-afternoon trade, with investor sentiment boosted by provisional data showing that foreign funds remained net buyers of Indian stocks on Friday, 3 August 2012. The barometer index, BSE Sensex, was up 245.30 points or 1.43%, off close to 5 points from the day's high and up over 130 points from the day's low. The market breadth was strong. Except BSE FMCG index and BSE IT index, all the other sectoral indices on BSE were in the green.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) surged on reports benchmark Singapore gross refining margins (GRM) have strengthened from the 2nd week of July 2012 to average at $8 a barrel from $6.7 a barrel in the quarter ended June 2012. Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC edged lower. Ambuja Cements hit record high. Capital goods stocks gained across the board. Steel Authority of India (Sail) rose as the company's core operating profit margin (OPM) surged to 14.05% in Q1 June 2012 from 12.16% in Q1 June 2011.
The market surged in early trade on firm Asian stocks. The Sensex and the 50-unit S&P CNX Nifty both hit their highest level in nearly four weeks. The market extended initial gains to hit fresh intraday high in morning trade. The market hovered near intraday high in mid-morning trade. Firmness continued in early afternoon trade. Key benchmark indices pared gains in afternoon trade after European market opened lower. The market regained strength in mid-afternoon trade.
Provisional data showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net buyers of Indian stocks on Friday, 3 August 2012, boosted sentiment on the domestic bourses. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 208.69 crore on Friday, 3 August 2012, as per provisional figures on the stock exchanges. FIIs made substantial purchases of Indian stocks last month. FIIs bought shares worth net Rs 9691 crore from the secondary equity markets in July 2012.
At 14:20 IST, the BSE Sensex was up 245.30 points or 1.43% to 17,443.25. The index surged 250.49 points at the day's high of 17,448.42 in morning trade, its highest level since 11 July 2012. The index rose 115.12 points at the day's low of 17,313.05 in early trade.
The S&P CNX Nifty was up 71.15 points or 1.36% to 5,286.95. The Nifty hit high of 5,292.65 in intraday trade, its highest level since 11 July 2012. The Nifty hit a low of 5,260.85 in intraday trade.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong. On BSE, 1613 shares rose and 1065 shares fell. A total of 121 shares were unchanged.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, 24 stocks rose and only 6 of them fell.
Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC fell 0.6% to Rs 257.80, off the day's high of Rs 261.75. The stock had hit a record high of Rs 262.05 in intraday trade on 2 August 2012. The company reported 20.21% growth in net profit to Rs 1602.14 crore on 15.34% growth in net sales to Rs 6652.21 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011. Despite series of tax hikes, ITC's performance in cigarettes business remains robust and displays pricing power for the company.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) surged 5.6% to Rs 784.50 on reports benchmark Singapore gross refining margins (GRM) have strengthened from the 2nd week of July 2012 to average at $8 a barrel from $6.7 a barrel in the quarter ended June 2012.
RIL bought back 3.66 crore shares for about of Rs 2617.57 crore till 24 July 2012 under its ongoing share buyback program. RIL has set maximum buyback price of Rs 870 per share. The company has set aside Rs 10440 crore for share buyback. The buyback program opened on 1 February 2012 and closes on 19 January 2013. RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani said at the company's Annual General Meeting in June 2012 that the company's buyback program represents a highly accretive use of cash by the company and it will supplement earnings growth from operations, for higher EPS (earnings per share), in the near future.
Shares of power finance companies rose. Power Finance Corporation and Rural Electrification Corporation gained 1.99% to 4.57%. Power Minister Veerappa Moily last week said reforms in the power sector will continue. Mr. Moily has been assigned the additional charge of the power ministry after Sushilkumar Shinde was appointed as new home minister last week.
Capital goods stocks gained across the board. L&T rose 1.87%. The company's recurring profit after tax rose 19% to Rs 890 crore on 26% growth in gross revenue to Rs 12078 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011. The company announced the first quarter results last month. L&T said the healthy revenue growth in Q1 June 2012 was on the back of a strong order book and good progress in execution of various jobs. International sales constituted 17% of the total revenue in Q1 June 2012, L&T said in a statement.
L&T's order inflow jumped 21% to Rs 19594 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011 despite weak investment sentiment and prevailing global uncertainties, the company said. The major orders came from infrastructure, buildings & factories and power transmission & distribution sectors, L&T said in a statement. L&T's order book stood at Rs 153095 crore as on 30 June 2012.
With regard to future business outlook, L&T said that with its enhanced capacities and presence in the diverse sectors, the company is in a good position to harness the opportunities as they emerge. The superior execution capabilities and growing order book provide visibility to sustained revenue growth in the medium term, L&T said in a statement.
On the international front, select markets in the Middle East, South East Asia and CIS countries hold promising prospects where the company is strengthening its presence, L&T said in a statement.
State-run power equipment maker Bhel rose 1.36%. Bhel's net profit rose 12.92% to Rs 920.90 crore on 16.46% growth in total income to Rs 8805.28 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011. The company announced the results on 26 July 2012. The company's order book position declined to Rs 132900 crore as on 30 June 2012 from Rs 134681 crore as on 31 March 2012.
Among other capital goods stocks, BEML, Punj Lloyd, ABB, Siemens and Thermax rose by between 0.09% to 2.31%.
Sail rose 1.12% as the company's core operating profit margin surged to 14.05% in Q1 June 2012 from 12.16% in Q1 June 2011. Net profit declined 17.9% to Rs 696.41 crore on 3.08% fall in total income to Rs 11055.95 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011. The fall in net profit was mainly due sharply higher foreign exchange loss of Rs 256.94 crore in Q1 June 2012 compared with foreign exchange loss of Rs 11.66 crore in Q1 June 2011.
Ambuja Cements rose 1.18% to Rs 184.70. The stock hit a record high of Rs 186 in intraday trade today, 6 August 2012. Ambuja Cements' net profit rose 34.9% to Rs 468.90 crore on 17.9% growth in net sales to Rs 2565.95 crore in Q2 June 2012 over Q2 June 2011.
Among other cement stocks, ACC, Jaiprakash Associates and UltraTech Cements gained by between 0.07% to 3.14%.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) last week said the El Nino weather pattern is likely to reduce rains again in the second half of the June to September monsoon season. The IMD said rains over the entire June to September season are now expected to be less than 90% of long-term average. This is lower than IMD's previous forecast of 96%. Monsoon rains are considered deficient -- a drought in layman's terms -- if they fall below 90% of a 50-year average. Between June 1 and August 1, rainfall was about 19% below normal. The IMD expects normal rains in August -- a critical month for summer crops. It expects rainfall to be 5-6% below average in September due to the possibility of El Nino. The weather office said rainfall during August-September is expected to be 91% of the long-term average.
The rainfall distribution has been erratic this year as major crop- growing regions such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana have received scanty showers threatening the prospects of summer crops. With the monsoon season halfway through, India is staring at the possibility of a full-blown drought in some regions.
A panel of Indian ministers last week approved steps to contain the impact of a near-drought situation. The steps include providing a diesel-price subsidy to farmers, increasing the subsidy on seed supplies and removal of the import tax on oilmeals.
Insufficient rainfall could lead to higher food inflation. There will be an impact on foodgrain output, but it is too early to give any estimate, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar last week. Mr. Pawar said the government will raise subsidies for the supply of various seeds for alternate crops in affected areas.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs last week approved the Minimum Support Prices (MSPS) for Arhar (Tur) and Moong for 2012-13 season. The MSP for Arhar (Tur) has been fixed at Rs 3850 per quintal and of Moong at Rs 4400 per quintal marking an increase of Rs 650 per quintal and Rs 900 per quintal, respectively.
Rice sowing has picked up according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture. Rice was sown in 233.68 lakh hectares (lh) till Friday, 3 August 2012, compared with 191.06 lh a week back. Rice sowing so far has been below the normal area of 240.89 lh for the summer sown crop by this time of the year. Cumulative sowing of coarse cereals totaled 135.75 lh till 3 August 2012, compared with 117.48 lh a week back. It, however, remains much lower than 169.30 lh of normal area for the crop this time of the year.
Sowing of pulses totaled 72.79 lh till 3 August 2012, compared with 62.99 lh a week back. It, however, remains lower than 84.15 lh of normal area for this time of the year. Sowing of oilseeds totaled 145.17 lh till 3 August 2012, compared with 138.33 lh a week back. It is almost equal to the normal area of 145.49 lh for oilseeds by this time of the year. Sowing of cotton totaled 100.14 lh till 3 August 2012, compared with 97.24 lh as on 27 July 2012. The normal cotton sowing area of 99.89 lh by this time of the year has already been surpassed. Sowing of jute and mesta totaled 8.40 lh as on 3 August 2012, exceeding the normal area of 8.22 lk for the crop by this time of the year.
The monsoon rains--which make up around 70% of India's annual rainfall--are crucial to the nation's agriculture sector and broader economy. More than 60% of the country's farmland is rain-fed. The timing, distribution and quantity of rainfall are all important for crops. The four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June accounts for almost 70% of total annual moisture that Indian soil receives in a year.
A bad monsoon will have a larger impact on inflation than on growth as agriculture output constitutes a relatively small portion of India's economy, Indian central bank officials said on 1 August 2012, in a conference call following the release of its monetary policy review on 31 July 2012. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 8% after first quarter review of Monetary Policy 2012-13 in an effort to keep a lid on inflation and inflation expectations. The RBI, however, lowered banks' statutory liquidity ratio, or the part of deposits that must be invested mainly in government bonds, by a percentage point to 23% to ensure that liquidity pressures do not constrain the flow of credit to productive sectors of the economy.
Principal adviser to the Planning Commission Pronab Sen last month said slowing investment due to weak confidence in the economy is hurting growth. Mr. Sen said Indian companies aren't facing any shortage of funds. Many of them are sitting on piles of cash and aren't even repatriating overseas borrowings, he added.
The government should take steps to meet the fiscal deficit target set out in the budget and that would improve sentiment and revive investments, Mr. Sen said. He said the government should scale back its spending and slash subsidies on fuels, food and fertilizers to help check its budget deficit.
Slowing growth in investment remains a cause for concern for India. Investment makes up 35% of India's economic activity.
A comprehensive Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill is among the 31 Bills the government has lined up for consideration and passing during the monsoon session of Parliament, which begins on Wednesday, 8 August 2012. Among the other bills include those on Forward Contracts, Banking laws, whistle-blowers and women's reservation as also the Prevention of Bribery of Foreign Public Officials bill. The monsoon session of Parliament will conclude on September 7.
Voting for the country's new vice president takes places tomorrow, 7 August 2012.
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has decided to refer the issue of implications on FIIs and portfolio investors of the amendment made to the Income Tax Act relating to the taxation of non-resident transfer of assets where the underlying asset is in India to the Expert Committee on anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR). "It is necessary to have clarity on the tax liability of portfolio investors and foreign institutional investors as a result of this amendment particularly when the investment is made through a registered stock exchange in accordance with SEBI guidelines and purely in the form of portfolio investment", the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) said in a statement issued Monday, 30 July 2012. Any clarification needs to be harmonised with the GAAR guidelines and will have to address any residual concerns outside of GAAR, the PMO said.
Dr. Singh last month constituted an expert committee on anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) to undertake stakeholder consultations and finalise the guidelines for GAAR by 30 September 2012.
An India-Mauritius joint panel will discuss a series of proposals to review the double taxation avoidance treaty between the two nations on 22-24 August in Mauritius. India has been looking to negotiate the double taxation avoidance agreement with Mauritius for the past few years to check so-called round tripping and other potential abuses. Round tripping entails moving money out of one country to another, and getting it back under the garb of foreign capital. Capital gains tax is close to zero in Mauritius and almost 40% of investments into India come through the island nation. Under the bilateral agreement, capital gains from sale of securities can be taxed only in Mauritius. The India-Mauritius joint working group will also discuss the inclusion of a so-called limitation of benefit clause, similar to the Singapore tax treaty with India, to ensure only genuine Mauritius-based companies are benefited. India's tax agreement with Singapore says that only those companies that spend a minimum of $200,000 (about Rs 1 crore) in Singapore can avail the benefits of the treaty.
Sanctity of tax residency certificates issued by a country to companies operating in its jurisdiction to enable the firms to claim tax benefits under various treaties is another issue between India and Mauritius. While India in this year's national budget said the certificates are a necessary but not sufficient condition, Mauritius wants those issued by it honoured. Draft guidelines issued by Indian government for implementing the controversial anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the GAAR state that GAAR provisions should be invoked on a foreign institutional investor (FII), if it chooses to take a treaty benefit, but would not in any case be invoked in the case of the non-resident investors of the FII. The draft guidelines suggested that the onus of proving wrongdoing should be on the authorities.
Investors' focus is currently on Q1 June 2012 earnings. Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Power and Bharti Airtel unveil Q1 results on Wednesday, 8 August 2012. Tata Motors and Ranbaxy Laboratories unveil quarterly results on Thursday, 9 August 2012. State Bank of India, Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries, Siemens and BPCL announce quarterly results on Friday, 10 August 2012. ONGC announces Q1 results on Saturday, 11 August 2012. Tata Steel and Coal India unveil Q1 results on 13 August 2012. Hindalco Industries and IDFC will unveil Q1 results on 14 August 2012.
European equities were mixed on Monday as investors grew cautious over the prospects of a bailout for Spain, with its 10-year bond yield holding close to 7 percent danger level. Key benchmark indices in France and Germany were up 0.11% to 0.16%. UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.15%.
European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi last week said the ECB may soon step in to buy government bonds in the open market, possibly in unlimited quantities, and it will also consider other unconventional measures to lower exceptionally high borrowing costs of financially stressed euro-zone economies. Draghi indicated that the ECB may buy government bonds in the open market under strict conditions and after stressed states submitted a request for aid
Germany's Federal Constitutional Court will announce a decision on lawsuits challenging the country's participation in the permanent euro-zone rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, and the fiscal pact on 12 September 2012. The court held a public hearing earlier this month to examine complaints that participation in the fund and the fiscal pact violated German law by taking some authority over the national budget away from parliament.
Asian shares climbed on Monday, 6 August 2012, joining in a global stock rally triggered by stronger US economic data and optimism for progress in Europe. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan rose by between 0.21% to 2.01%.
China's central bank on Sunday pledged to intensify monetary policy fine-tuning and improve credit policy to bolster the world's second largest economy.
Indonesia's economy expanded more than analysts estimated as rising investments helped the nation withstand declining exports and Europe's sovereign-debt crisis. Gross domestic product rose 6.4% in the three months ended June 30 from a year earlier, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta today. That compares with a 6.31% gain reported previously for the first quarter.
Australian inflation reached 0.2% in July from the previous month, according to the TD Securities - Melbourne Institute monthly survey. In June, the survey showed a 0.2% monthly drop. On an annual basis, the gauge rose 1.5%, compared to a 1.6% increase in June.
Trading in US index futures indicated a flat opening of US stocks on Monday, 6 August 2012. US stocks surged on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping to a three-month high, after US nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in July. US employers in July hired the most workers in five months, but an increase in the jobless rate to 8.3% kept prospects of further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve on the table. Nonfarm payrolls rose 163,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, breaking three straight months of job gains below 100,000 and offering hope for the ailing economy. The unemployment rate rose from 8.2% in June, even as more people gave up the search for work and a survey of households showed a drop in employment. The Federal Reserve last week sent a stronger signal that a new round of major support could be on the way if the recovery did not pick up.
Service-sector activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in July than a month earlier, according to the Institute for Supply Management, bucking economists' expectations for the group's nonmanufacturing index to show slowing expansion.
Election for a new president in the United States, the world's biggest economy, is scheduled on 6 November 2012.
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