Sensex extends losses

Key benchmark indices extended losses and hit fresh intraday low in mid-afternoon trade as investors turned cautious ahead of beginning of the 9-phase Lok Sabha elections on Monday, 7 April 2014. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was down 151.80 points or 0.67%, off close to 170 points from the day's high and up about 20 points from the day's low.

Telecom stocks declined. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive.

The Sensex edged lower in early trade. The barometer index extended initial losses and hit fresh intraday low in morning trade. The Sensex trimmed losses after hitting fresh intraday low in mid-morning trade. Key benchmark indices hovered in negative zone in afternoon trade. The Sensex extended losses and hit fresh intraday low in mid-afternoon trade.

 

At 14:20 IST, the S&P BSE Sensex was down 151.80 points or 0.67% to 22,357.27. The index declined 168.40 points at the day's low of 22,340.67 in mid-afternoon trade, its lowest level since 1 April 2014. The index rose 16.14 points at the day's high of 22,525.21 in early trade.

The CNX Nifty was down 42.25 points or 0.63% to 6,693.85. The index hit a low of 6,685.15 in intraday trade, its lowest level since 1 April 2014. The index hit a high of 6,741.85 in intraday trade.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 28.84 points or 0.4% to 7,199.59. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 54.54 points or 0.76% to 7,261.99. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On BSE, 1,510 shares gained and 1,146 shares fell. A total of 138 shares were unchanged.

Among the 30 Sensex shares, 22 stocks fell and the remaining stocks rose. Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) (down 2.05%), NTPC (down 1.98%), and GAIL (India) (down 1.64%) edged lower from the Sensex pack.

Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC declined 0.59% to Rs 344.30. The stock hit high of Rs 349.45 and low of Rs 342.60 so far during the day.

Telecom stocks declined. Reliance Communications (down 0.27%) and Idea Cellular (down 0.32%) declined.

Bharti Airtel fell 1.66% on profit booking after the stock rose 11.54% in the preceding nine trading sessions to Rs 326.10 on 2 April 2014, from a recent low of Rs 292.35 on 21 March 2014.

SRF rose 1.44% after the company said that five projects at SRF's Chemical Complex at Dahej, Gujarat have been commissioned and capitalized on 31 March 2014. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 3 April 2014.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar on speculation the central bank will curb currency appreciation to protect exporters. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 60.25, compared with its close of 60.165/175 on Thursday, 3 April 2014. Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said in a newspaper interview published on Thursday, 3 April 2014, that the Indian rupee at 55 to the dollar would be too strong. Rajan said a study by economists at the finance ministry had suggested a range of 60 to 62 was reasonable, after taking into account inflation and export competitiveness.

The next major trigger for the stock market is Q4 March 2014 and year ended 31 March 2014 (FY 2014) corporate earnings. Investors and analysts will closely watch the management commentary that would accompany the results to see if there is any revision in their future earnings forecast of the company for the year ending 31 March 2015 (FY 2015) and/or for the year ending 31 March 2016 (FY 2016). Indian companies will start reporting their Q4 and full year results from mid-April 2014. The result season will conclude in end-May 2014.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) next undertakes monetary policy review on 3 June 2014. The RBI left its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 8% after a monetary policy review on Tuesday, 1 April 2014.

On the political front, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will release its poll manifesto on Monday, 7 April 2014, the day the 9-phase Lok Sabha election begins. The party on Thursday, 3 April 2014, issued its manifesto for the North East region, wherein it stated that it will develop the area as a BPO hub if voted to power. The BJP has already released a Delhi-specific manifesto wherein it has made an array of promises like granting full statehood, reducing power tariff by 30% and controlling price rise within one month if BJP is voted to power. The party, which had lost all the seats in the national capital to Congress in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, said it will set up a helpline for the national capital to receive complaints of corruption. It also promised to bring police, DDA and other land-owning agencies under one roof to streamline governance in the national capital.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on Thursday, 3 April 2014, made a pitch to win back its middle-class supporters ahead of the national elections by promising to be more business-friendly. During the release of the party's manifesto, AAP's leader Arvind Kejriwal tried to brush off the anti-corporate image that has come to be associated with the party's politics. As a party that was created to combat corruption, big businesses have frequently been at the receiving end of Mr. Kejriwal's ire. "AAP believes the government should not be in the business of running businesses," the party's manifesto said, promising to revive the economy and create more jobs by easing rules for doing business. One of the hurdles it has promised to remove is the harassment of business owners by officials, who are often accused of demanding bribes in order to provide basic services such as approving licenses. In its manifesto the party has said that participation of the private sector can help enterprises thrive and create jobs. It has also promised a simple, progressive and stable tax structure.

A major near term trigger for the stock market is the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Lok Sabha elections will be held between 7 April 2014 and 12 May 2014 in nine phases. The counting of votes will take place on 16 May 2014. The term of the current Lok Sabha expires on June 1 and the new House has to be constituted by May 31. Along with the Lok Sabha election, Andhra Pradesh (AP), including the regions comprising Telangana, Odisha and Sikkim will go to polls to elect new assemblies. AP, Odisha and Sikkim assemblies come to end on June 2, June 7 and May 7 respectively.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that emerging markets may suffer as growth slows in China, where the government this week announced policies designed to shore up the economy. Developing nations, which are increasingly dependent on China for growth, may suffer as the world's second-largest economy decelerates, according to the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook report. The probability of defaults in China is relatively high, Alfred Schipke, the International Monetary Fund's senior resident representative for China, said yesterday, 3 April 2014.

Business activity across emerging markets fell for the fourth straight month in March, with output contracting in three of the four biggest economies, a survey showed on Friday. HSBC's composite emerging markets index of manufacturing and services purchasing managers' surveys slipped to 50.3 from 51.1 in February, teetering on the 50 threshold that marks the difference between expansion and contraction.

European stocks edged higher on Friday, 4 April 2014, after the latest data showed that German manufacturing orders grew more than expected in February on the back of strong domestic orders. Key benchmark indices in UK, France and Germany were up 0.14% to 0.24%.

German manufacturing orders grew more than expected in February on the back of strong domestic orders, data from the country's statistics office showed today, 4 April 2014, reinforcing expectations for strong first-quarter economic growth. Total manufacturing orders grew 0.6% in monthly terms adjusted for inflation, workdays, and seasonal effects. Figures for January were, however, reduced sharply. Growth in January was only 0.1%, far below the 1.2% originally reported. Total domestic orders grew 1.2% on the month in February, after a 2% gain in January, while total foreign orders were up only 0.2%. This masked significant differences between the euro zone and non-euro zone. Foreign orders from within the currency bloc rose 5.9%, partially recovering from January's massive 9.4% drop. Orders from outside the euro zone fell 3.1%, after January's 3.9% rise.

In an accompanying press release, the country's economy ministry said that orders for the first two months of the year were on average 0.7% above the average of the last quarter of 2013 and that the upward momentum was broad-based across all industry classifications. It also said that bulk orders were above average for the month of February. The data suggest a further pick up in industrial output in the coming months and strengthened momentum in the domestic economy in the first quarter, the release said. Germany is Europe's biggest economy.

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) left key policy unchanged after a monetary policy review on Thursday, 3 April 2014. ECB President Mario Draghi said there was discussion of quantitative easing at the latest meeting, adding to speculation that the ECB would implement unconventional measures to fight falling inflation.

Asian stocks declined on Friday, 4 April 2014, after a fresh move by China's central bank on Thursday, 3 April 2014, to drain liquidity. Key benchmark indices in South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan and Singapore were off 0.05% to 0.84%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.74%.

The monetary authority, at its first-quarter monetary policy committee meeting, reiterated it will "keep moderate liquidity" and "realize reasonable growth in loans and social financing," according to a statement on the the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) website yesterday, 3 April 2014. The PBOC will closely monitor new global and domestic economic and financial developments and continue to keep prudent monetary policy, according to the statement.

In February and March, a total of $3.5 billion flowed out of China equity funds, according to EPFR data, as investors worried about rising risks of an economic slowdown and fears of corporate defaults.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could advance 20 points at the opening bell on Friday, 4 April 2014. US stocks slipped on Thursday, 3 April 2014, as investors turned cautious ahead of Friday's monthly jobs report.

On the economic front, the US trade deficit unexpectedly widened in February to $42.3 billion as exports hit a five-month low, suggesting that first-quarter growth could be much weaker than initially expected.

A bright spot came from the services sector, where growth accelerated in March after being hampered by unusually cold weather, according to the Institute for Supply Management's services-sector index.

The influential US non-farms payroll data for March 2014 will be released today, 4 April 2014.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 29-30 April 2014. The Federal Reserve on 19 March 2014 said after the conclusion of a monetary policy review that it will trim its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. The Federal Reserve will end its bond-buying program before the end of the year with an interest-rate increase likely to follow in "around six months," Chair Janet Yellen said on 19 March 2014. Quarterly Fed forecasts on 19 March 2014 showed more officials predicting that the benchmark interest rate, now close to zero, will rise to at least 1% by the end of 2015 and 2.25% a year later.

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