Key benchmark indices pared gains and hit fresh intraday low in early afternoon trade. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, regained psychological 21,000 mark after falling below that mark in early afternoon trade. The Sensex was up 299.45 points or 1.45%, off close to 155 points from the day's high and up close to 25 points from the day's low. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. Indian stocks edged higher today, 5 December 2013, after exit polls on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, predicted a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recently concluded assembly elections in four states viz. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and New Delhi. In the foreign exchange market, the rupee strengthened past 62 against the dollar.
Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC reversed intraday gains. IT stocks fell on a firm rupee. Metal stocks extended recent gains triggered by data showing that manufacturing activity in China continued to grow last month.
The market surged in early trade after exit polls on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, predicted a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recently concluded assembly elections in four states viz. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and New Delhi. The Sensex hit 4-1/2-week above the psychological 21,000 mark. The 50-unit CNX Nifty hit its highest level in more than four weeks. The market trimmed initial gains in morning trade. Firmness continued on the bourses in mid-morning trade. The Sensex pared gains and hit fresh intraday low in early afternoon trade.
Indian stocks surged today, 5 December 2013, after exit polls on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, predicted a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recently concluded assembly elections in four states viz. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and New Delhi. The state elections are considered a barometer for the national elections that are scheduled to be held before the end of May 2014. BJP's prime ministerial candidate for general elections in 2014 -- Narendra Modi -- is considered a pro-business leader.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has emerged as the biggest winner in four key state elections, exit polls forecast on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, a possible blow to the ruling Congress ahead of a general election due next year. Assembly elections in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram were held over the past few weeks. The elections were marked by record high turnout in most states. Despite the gains predicted for the BJP it was unable to win a majority of seats in the capital Delhi, two polls showed. One poll suggested the race was close in Chhattisgarh. While the exact results varied from exit poll to exit poll, the general trend was clear: The ruling Congress party recorded embarrassing declines in support in Delhi as well as the western state of Rajasthan. Meanwhile voters in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh voted basically on the same lines they voted five years ago, backing the main opposition party, the BJP.
Counting of votes for assembly elections in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan takes place on Sunday, 8 December 2013. Counting of votes for assembly elections in Mizoram takes place on 9 December 2013. The results are being closely watched by markets as a potential indicator of the mood of voters in the world's biggest democracy before the 2014 general election.
At 12:20 IST, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 299.45 points or 1.45% to 21,008.16. The index jumped 456.89 points at the day's high of 21,165.60 in early trade, its highest level since 3 November 2013. The index rose 276.30 points at the day's low of 20,985.01 in early afternoon trade.
The CNX Nifty was up 94.35 points or 1.54% to 6,255.80. The index hit a high of 6,300.55 in intraday trade, its highest level since 5 November 2013. The index hit a low of 6,247.10 in intraday trade.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On BSE, 1,232 shares rose and 935 shares dropped. A total of 151 shares were unchanged.
From 30-share Sensex pack, 23 stocks rose and rest fell. ICICI Bank (up 6.47%), HDFC Bank (up 4.1%) and Bhel (up 3.63%) edged higher.
Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC was off 0.5% at Rs 311.50. The scrip hit high of Rs 318.05 and low of Rs 311.30 so far during the day.
IT stocks fell on firm rupee. A firm rupee adversely affects operating profit margins of IT firms as the sector derives a lion's share of revenue from exports. Infosys (down 0.15%), Wipro (down 0.16%) and HCL Technologies (down 0.15%) declined. TCS rose 0.25%.
Metal stocks extended recent gains triggered by data showing that manufacturing activity in China continued to grow last month. China is the world's largest consumer of copper and aluminum. Jindal Steel & Power (up 1.51%), JSW Steel (up 0.6%), NMDC (up 1.64%), Sail (up 1.6%), Sesa Sterlite (up 0.66%), Hindustan Copper (up 1.06%), Tata Steel (up 1.13%), Hindalco Industries (up 1.7%), Hindustan Zinc (up 1.05%) and National Aluminum Company (up 1.23%), gained.
China last month released a broad outline for structural reform of the economy.
Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service has said that its outlook for Indian non-financial corporates is negative, reflecting macroeconomic challenges over the next 12 months. Moody's also expects heightened expectation of a scale back of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve in 2014 to keep the rupee volatile, making the operating environment more challenging for importers and exporters. Moody's conclusions were contained in a just-released report titled, "2014 Outlook -- India Non-Financial Corporates, Weak Economy, Political Uncertainty and Quantitative-Easing Scale Back Are Biggest Risks".
Companies will also face higher borrowing costs and tight funding conditions with monetary policy likely to remain tight, the report says. Moody's could move to a stable outlook if its GDP growth expectations exceed 6%, the rupee stabilizes -- such that one-year volatility falls below 5% -- and a development and reform-focused government is formed with a strong majority after general elections in 2014.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar after exit polls on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, predicted a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recently concluded assembly elections in four states viz. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and New Delhi. The state elections are considered a barometer for the national elections that are scheduled to be held before the end of May 2014. BJP's prime ministerial candidate for general elections in 2014 -- Narendra Modi -- is considered a pro-business leader. The partially convertible rupee was currently hovering at 61.6675, compared with its close of 62.05/06 on Wednesday, 4 December 2013.
Government bond prices rose tracking gains in rupee against the dollar. The yield on 10-year benchmark federal paper, 7.16% GS 2023, was hovering at 9.0553%, lower than its close of 9.0897% on Wednesday, 4 December 2013. Bond yield and bond prices are inversely related.
On macro front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announces next Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 on 18 December 2013. The Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 is scheduled 28 January 2014.
Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service has said in an update on the Indian economy, said that the outcome of the next general election could impact growth depending on the impact on policies and sentiments. Simultaneously, the agency which expects the Indian economy to pose a slow recovery only in the second half of 2014, has also reiterated the stable outlook for India's rating. "Moody's expects a slow economic recovery in the second half of 2014, if global growth increases while domestic inflation and interest rates decline", the agency said. Moody's added that India's investment climate and competitiveness indicators are weaker than those of similarly rated countries. "Although there have been policy efforts to induce investment in the last year, their impact may not be evident in the near term," it said.
Moody's said that downward pressure on the rating could develop if the medium-term growth and fiscal outlook weaken further; or if there is a decline in the foreign exchange reserves or the asset quality of state-owned banks or if high inflation persists, damaging the fiscal, growth and balance of payments outlook. The agency sounded a note of caution on the country's fiscal deficit saying that a low base limits the revenue-collection capacity of the government.
Asian stocks declined on Thursday, 5 December 2013, as strong US economic data overnight triggered speculation that the Federal Reserve will bring forward cuts to monetary stimulus for the US economy. Key benchmark indices in Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China and Taiwan shed 0.1% to 0.98%. Fed's bond-buying program has been a source of liquidity for most Asian and emerging markets this year.
Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could slide 11 points at the opening bell on Thursday, 5 December 2013. US stocks fell a fourth day on Wednesday, the longest slump in 10 weeks for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as investors weighed economic data for clues on the timing of Federal Reserve stimulus cuts amid optimism over a budget deal.
Data showed companies boosted payrolls in November by the most in a year. US companies added 215,000 jobs in November, topping estimates, a private survey showed yesterday. A separate report indicated service industries in the US expanded at a slower pace than forecast in November, showing uneven progress in the biggest part of the economy. Purchases of new US homes surged in October by the most in three decades, signaling buyers are starting to take higher mortgage rates in stride.
Investors are keeping a close watch on economic data in the United States as the Federal Reserve monitors the pace of recovery to gauge when it will begin to reduce monetary stimulus for the US economy, which has been aimed at encouraging growth. The US government will release the influential US non-farm payrolls data for November 2013 tomorrow, 6 December 2013. The Fed has said improvement in the labor market is a key factor in its policy assessment.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day policy meeting on interest rates in the United States on 17-18 December 2013. The US central bank currently buys bonds worth $85 billion a month in a bid to hold interest rates low and encourage economic growth in the world's biggest economy. Minutes of the Fed's October meeting released on 20 November 2013 showed officials may reduce their $85 billion a month of bond buying if the economy improves as anticipated.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) holds its monthly monetary policy meeting today, 5 December 2013. The ECB unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point last month to a record-low 0.25% after inflation slowed in October to the least in four years.
UK's central bank -- Bank of England -- is also expected to keep its key policy rate steady at 0.5% after a monetary policy review today, 5 December 2013.
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