Solid but moderating global air passenger demand in November 2018: IATA

India's domestic traffic jumped 13.3% in November marking the 51st consecutive month of double-digit domestic growth

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced healthy but moderating global passenger traffic results for November 2018. Total revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) rose 6.2% compared to November 2017, a slight deceleration from 6.3% growth in October. Capacity (available seat kilometers or ASKs) increased by 6.8% over the year-ago period, and load factor dipped 0.4 percentage point to 80.0%. It was only the third time in two years that load factor fell on a year-to-year basis.

"Traffic is solid. But there are clear signs that growth is moderating in line with the slowing global economy. We still expect 6% demand growth this year. But trade tensions, protective tariffs and Brexit are all uncertainties that overhang the industry," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's Director General and CEO.

 

Nov-18<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

World share1

RPK

ASK

PLF

PLF

(% year-on-year)

(%-pt)2

(level)3

Total Market

100.0%

6.2%

6.8%

-0.4%

80.0%

Africa

2.2%

2.2%

1.2%

0.7%

69.8%

Asia Pacific

33.8%

6.3%

7.4%

-0.8%

80.2%

Europe

26.7%

8.8%

8.8%

0.0%

81.7%

Latin America

5.1%

6.2%

6.0%

0.1%

82.0%

Middle East

9.4%

2.6%

5.2%

-1.8%

69.4%

North America

22.8%

5.1%

5.0%

0.0%

83.6%

1 % of industry RPKs in 2017, 2 Year-on-year change in load factor, 3 Load factor level

International Passenger Markets

November international passenger demand rose 6.6% compared to the year earlier period, up from 6.2% in October. All regions showed growth, led by carriers in Europe. Total capacity climbed 6.7%, and load factor dipped 0.1 percentage point to 78.4%.

European carriers saw demand increase by 9.0% in November 2018, which was a nine-month high. Given the mixed signs on the economic backdrop in the region it is unclear whether this pace of growth can be sustained. Capacity climbed 9.1% and load factor slipped 0.1 percentage point to 82.1%, the highest load factor among the regions.

Asia-Pacific airlines' November traffic climbed 6.0% compared to the year-ago period, up from 5.7% growth in October. Capacity also rose 6.0% and load factor was flat at 79.1%. Growth is underpinned by rising living standards and continuing expansion of options for travelers.

Middle East carriers had a 2.8% demand increase, which was the lowest among the regions for a third consecutive month. Capacity rose 5.6% and load factor slipped 1.9 percentage points to 69.0%.

North American airlines' traffic climbed 6.1%, in November, up from 5.7% in October and well ahead of the five-year average rate of 4.0%. Capacity rose 3.8% and load factor edged up 1.7 percentage points to 80.6%. Demand is supported by comparatively strong momentum in the US economy.

Latin American airlines' November traffic climbed 5.8% compared to November 2017, which was an increase from 5.2% growth recorded in October. Despite the increase, growth has slowed on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Capacity rose 6.6% and load factor slipped 0.6 percentage point to 80.6%.

African airlines experienced a 5.7% rise in demand compared to November 2017, down from 6.4% in October but higher than the five-year average of 5.8%. Growth is occurring despite challenges in the continent's largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa. Capacity rose 3.9% and load factor climbed 1.2 percentage points to 68.9%.

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic travel demand rose 5.6% in November 2018 compared to the same month in 2017, its slowest pace in 11 months and down from 6.5% in October. All markets except Australia showed growth. Domestic capacity climbed 6.9%, and load factor dropped 1.0 percentage point to 82.8%.

India's domestic traffic rose 13.3% in November compared to November 2017, marking the 51st consecutive month of double-digit domestic growth. However, it was also the slowest increase in 16 months.

Brazil's domestic traffic rose to a four-month high of 5.3% in November, against a fragile economic backdrop.

Nov-18

World share1

RPK

ASK

PLF

PLF

(% year-on-year)

(%-pt)2

(level)3

Domestic

35.9%

5.6%

6.9%

-1.0%

82.8%

Australia

0.9%

-0.7%

-1.1%

0.3%

82.6%

Brazil

1.2%

5.3%

4.1%

1.0%

83.6%

China P.R

9.1%

7.2%

10.2%

-2.3%

82.0%

India

1.4%

13.3%

19.8%

-4.8%

84.4%

Japan

1.1%

1.5%

3.0%

-1.1%

75.6%

Russian Fed.

1.4%

13.8%

10.9%

2.1%

81.6%

US

14.3%

4.9%

5.9%

-0.8%

85.2%

1 % of industry RPKs in 2017

2 Year-on-year change in load factor

3 Load factor level,

*Note: the seven domestic passenger markets for which broken-down data are available account for 30% of global total RPKs and approximately 82% of total domestic RPKs

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