Earth System Science Organization-India Meteorological Department's (ESSO-IMD's) long range forecasts for the 2013 south-west monsoon season (June to September) are as follows:
a) Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be Normal (96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA)) with the highest probability of 46%. The probability (27%) of seasonal rainfall to be below normal (90-96% of LPA) is also higher than its climatological value. However, the probability for the seasonal rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA) is relatively low (10% and 3% respectively).
(b) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of 5%.
The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
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