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Volatility to the fore

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High volatility was witnessed in early afternoon trade as key benchmark indices once again slipped into the red from green soon after reversing intraday losses in early afternoon trade. High volatility for key indices materialised after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.5% after first bi-monthly Monetary Policy for 2015-16 announced at 11:00 IST. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was currently off 115.90 points or 0.41% at 28,388.56. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was positive. The RBI vowed to keep monetary policy accommodative, but warned that it will be watching consumer inflation closely.

 

Bank stocks were mixed after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.5% after first bi-monthly Monetary Policy for 2015-16 announced today, 7 April 2015.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley yesterday, 6 April 2015, said that legitimate taxes must be paid and should not be perceived as 'tax terrorism'. Jaitley said at a Confederation of Indian Industry conference in New Delhi that while India does not practice tax terrorism, it is not a tax haven either.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 936.81 crore yesterday, 6 April 2015, as per provisional data released by the stock exchanges. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 170.03 crore yesterday, 6 April 2015, as per provisional data.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar.

Brent crude oil futures edged lower after a leading foreign investment bank said prices needed to remain low for months to achieve a slowdown in US crude oil output growth.

In overseas markets, Asian markets edged higher after overnight gains in US stocks. US stocks rose yesterday, 6 April 2015, as the disappointing jobs data announced last week fed expectations that the Federal Reserve could wait longer before raising interest rates.

At 12:16 IST, the S&P BSE Sensex was down 115.90 points or 0.41% at 28,388.56. The index lost 139.46 points at the day's low of 28,365 in mid-morning trade. The index jumped 136.62 points at the day's high of 28,641.08 in early trade, its highest level since 19 March 2015.

The CNX Nifty was down 42.55 points or 0.49% at 8,617.35. The index hit a low of 8,605.75 in intraday trade. The index hit a high of 8,693.60 in intraday trade, its highest level since 19 March 2015.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 10.53 points or 0.1% at 10,880.35. The BSE Small-Cap index was up 48.91 points or 0.43% at 11,348.21. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was positive. On BSE, 1,260 shares gained and 1,079 shares fell. A total of 103 shares were unchanged.

Bank stocks were mixed after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.5% after first bi-monthly Monetary Policy for 2015-16 announced today, 7 April 2015. Canara Bank (up 0.05%), Bank of Baroda (up 0.52%), Punjab National Bank (up 1.24%), and Bank of India (up 1.34%) gained. State Bank of India fell 0.29%.

Shares of private sector banks declined. Axis Bank (down 1.04%), HDFC Bank (down 0.23%), IndusInd Bank (down 1.17%), ICICI Bank (down 0.92%), and Yes Bank (down 0.22%) edged lower. Federal Bank rose 0.8%.

In order to improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, the RBI will encourage banks to move in a time-bound manner to marginal-cost-of-funds-based determination of their base rate. Detailed guidelines in this regard will be issued shortly, the RBI said. Once the Financial Benchmarks India Pvt. Ltd starts publishing various indices of market interest rates in end May this year, the RBI will explore the possibility of encouraging banks to use the indices as an external benchmark for pricing bank products.

The RBI has decided to do away with the mandatory calendar of reviews by the boards of banks and replace it with the seven critical themes prescribed by the P.J.Nayak Committee viz. business strategy, financial reports and their integrity, risk, compliance, customer protection, financial inclusion and human resources. The bank boards will determine other list of items to be deliberated and periodicity thereof, the RBI said.

The RBI has also decided to issue guidelines to private sector banks on a policy on remuneration for the non-executive directors (other than part-time Chairman) that will reflect market realities and will be within the parameters specified in the Banking Regulation Act 1949 and the Companies Act, 2013. The RBI will also discuss with the government the adoption of a similar remuneration policy for the non-executive directors of the public sector banks.

The RBI has decided to allow banks to invest in long term bonds (LTBs) issued by other banks subject to certain conditions. It may be recalled that in July 2014, the RBI had allowed banks to issue LTBs with exemptions from certain regulatory pre-emptions for lending to long-term projects in infrastructure sub-sectors and affordable housing.

Shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank rose 0.23%. ING Vysya Bank gained 0.88%. Kotak Mahindra Bank after market hours yesterday, 6 April 2015, said that 17 April 2015 has been fixed as the record date for the purpose of ascertaining the shareholders of ING Vysya Bank who shall be entitled to the shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank in the ratio of 725 equity shares of Rs 5 each in Kotak Mahindra Bank for every 1,000 equity shares of Rs 10 each held in ING Vysya Bank.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 62.3375, compared with its close of 62.19 during the previous trading session.

Brent crude oil futures edged lower after a leading foreign investment bank said prices needed to remain low for months to achieve a slowdown in US crude oil output growth. Brent for May settlement was down 61 cents at $57.51 a barrel.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today, 7 April 2015, kept its benchmark lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged after first bi-monthly Monetary Policy for 2015-16. The RBI also kept the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4% of net demand and time liability (NDTL). The RBI said that going forward, the accommodative stance of monetary policy will be maintained and monetary policy actions will be conditioned by incoming data. "The Reserve Bank stays vigilant to any threats to the disinflation that is underway," the RBI said in a statement. The RBI said it will await the transmission by banks of its front-loaded rate reductions in January and February into their lending rates. The RBI said that developments in sectoral prices, especially those of food, will be monitored, as will the effects of recent weather disturbances and the likely strength of the monsoon, as the central bank stays vigilant to any threats to the disinflation that is underway. The RBI will look to a continuation and even acceleration of policy efforts to unclog the supply response so as to make available key inputs such as power and land. Further progress on repurposing of public spending from poorly targeted subsidies towards public investment and on reducing the pipeline of stalled investment will also be helpful in containing supply constraints and creating room for monetary accommodation, the RBI said. The RBI will also watch for signs of normalisation of the US monetary policy, though it anticipates India is better buffered against likely volatility than in the past.

The RBI said that the central bank will stay focussed on ensuring that the economy disinflates gradually and durably, with CPI inflation targeted at 6% by January 2016 and at 4% by the end of 2017-18. Although the target for end-2017-18 and thereafter is defined in terms of a tolerance band of plus/minus 2% around the mid-point, it will be the RBI's endeavour to keep inflation at or close to this mid-point of 4%. The RBI's intent is to allow the disinflationary momentum to spread through the economy.

According to RBI, CPI inflation is projected at its current levels in the first quarter of 2015-16 and is expected to thereafter to around 4% by August. The CPI inflation is expected to rise thereafter to reach 5.8% by the end of the current financial year.

Assuming a normal monsoon, continuation of the cyclical upturn in a supportive policy environment, and no major structural change or supply shocks, GDP growth for 2015-16 is projected at 7.8%, higher by 30 bps from 7.5% in 2014-15, but with a downward bias to reflect the still subdued indicators of economic activity.

With regard to measures for the financial markets, the RBI intends to expand, in consultation with the Government of India, the scope of issue of rupee bonds in overseas markets by the international financial institutions as also to permit Indian corporates eligible to raise external commercial borrowing (ECB) through issuance of rupee bonds in overseas centers with an appropriate regulatory framework.

Meanwhile, with a view to encourage hedging of forex exposures and enhancing the liquidity of the currency options market, the RBI has decided to allow Indian exporters and importers to write covered options on the basis of actual contracted forex exposure, subject to conditions. The RBI will announced detailed operating instruction in this regard.

The RBI has decided to NBFC-IDFs to provide take-out finance for infrastructure projects that have completed one year of operation in the PPP segment without a tripartite agreement and to the non-PPP segment, subject to certain conditions. These NBFCs have been hitherto allowed only to provide take-out finance for infrastructure projects in the Public Private Partnership (PPP) segment under a tripartite agreement involving, among others, the project authority.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley yesterday, 6 April 2015, said that legitimate taxes must be paid and should not be perceived as 'tax terrorism'. Jaitley said at a Confederation of Indian Industry conference in New Delhi that while India does not practice tax terrorism, it is not a tax haven either. Jaitley said that the aim of the government is to create a conducive business environment by addressing the challenges faced, especially with respect to taxation, the Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation and Resettlement bill, and corruption. To facilitate ease of doing business, the government is focusing on tax reforms with the aim of pushing for the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and lowering the corporate tax rate.

With respect to the land law, which is commonly perceived as anti-farmer and detrimental to the cause of rural India, Jaitley said the government was cognizant of the large population that would get impacted, but was also aware of the potential of this to unleash productivity and employment. Amendments in the Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation and Resettlement bill are required to support building of rural infrastructure including roads, irrigation and industrial corridors, Jaitley said.

The Finance Minister said that the government will do its share by creating a policy framework that enables economic growth. The time now, he said, is to slog to implement the changes at the ground level. Jaitley sought the industry's support in implementing these changes.

Asian markets rose today, 7 April 2015, following overnight gains in US stocks. Key indices in Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, China, Singapore, and Taiwan rose by 0.03% to 1.85%.

Stock markets in Hong Kong remain closed today, 7 April 2015, for Ching Ming Festival.

Trading in US index futures indicates that the Dow Jones industrial average could gain 17 points at the opening bell today, 7 April 2015. US stocks rose yesterday, 6 April 2015, as the disappointing jobs data announced last week led to expectations that the Federal Reserve could wait longer before raising interest rates.

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First Published: Apr 07 2015 | 12:12 PM IST

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