The upcoming spectrum auction in February will set the course for the future of the industry but the sizeable expected spectrum payouts would elevate the debt levels for the industry, rating agency ICRA said here Friday.
"Total spectrum payout is expected to be Rs.90,000 crore-Rs.96,000 crore and the upfront cash inflow for government of India this fiscal is expected to be at Rs.24,000 crore to Rs.26,000 crore," said Sabyasachi Majumdar, senior vice-president, ICRA Limited.
The cabinet Monday approved the proposal of the Department of Telecom (DoT) to proceed with auction in 800, 900 and 1800 (mega hertz) MHz bands and finalised its reserve prices.
"The reserve price approved is Rs.3,646 crore pan-India per MHZ in 800 MHz, Rs.3,980 crore for 900 MHz band pan India excluding Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Jammu and Kashmir; Rs.2,191 crore pan India (excluding Maharashtra and West Bengal) in 1800 MHz band," an official statement said.
The quantum of spectrum to be put to auction is 103.75 MHz in 800 MHz band in all service areas, 177.8 MHz in 17 licence service area (LSA) in 900 MHz band and 99.2 MHz in 15 LSAs in 1800 MHz band.
Thus a total of 380.75 MHz in 800, 900 and 1800 MHz is being put to auction, it added.
The estimated revenues from this auction, due in February, are Rs.64,840 crore (excluding 2100 MHz spectrum) of which Rs.16,000 crore is expected to be realized in the current financial year (2014-15).
The revenue target from spectrum auction set by the government in the 2014-15 budget is Rs.45,471 crore.
In December 2015, seven licences each of Idea Cellular and Reliance Communications, four licences of Bharti Airtel and six licences of Vodafone will complete their 20-year term after which they should be renewed.
"The spectrum auctions would be centered on 900 MHz as the incumbent telcos (namely Bharti, Vodafone and Idea), who hold sizeable spectrum in this band would be keen to retain their existing spectrum. Change in 900 MHz spectrum holding significantly alters the competitive positioning given its relatively higher spectral efficiency and hence there is expected to be aggressive participation in the auction," Majumdar said.
The three incumbents viz Bharti, Vodafone and Idea are estimated to account for around 90 percent of the total value of the spectrum sold, he added.
