'Too late for military response, difficult to isolate Pakistan'

As tensions between India and Pakistan continue to rise over the Uri terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, US-based political science expert Sumit Ganguly has stressed it is "too late" for a military response and even attempts to diplomatically isolate Pakistan would be tough for India in the current global scenario.

"I think it is too late for a military response. Any element of surprise that might have existed is long gone. At this stage all that India can do is try and diplomatically isolate Pakistan. Even this strategy will be difficult as the world is preoccupied with a host of other crises," Ganguly, director, Centre on American and Global Security at Indiana University, told IANS in an email.

 

With debates raging on whether India needs to call Pakistan's nuclear bluff, he warned that resorting to nuclear weapons on India's part would be "sheer madness".

"India needs to devise a strategy to call Pakistan's bluff. To that end, it needs to set some red lines of its own. No, a resort to nuclear weapons on India's part would be sheer madness," Ganguly said.

Ganguly also asserted that severing cultural ties with Pakistan is "foolish", and pointed to the fact that "even at the height of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union had extensive cultural links."

Further, India has to contend with the China factor as it evaluates all its options with Pakistan, he noted and asked if India's stand would strain its relations with the Asian superpower.

"Much depends on the actions that India takes vis-a-vis Pakistan. However, if India wishes to be a great power and be seen as one, it can ill-afford to constantly kowtow to the sentiments of the People's Republic of China (PRC)," Ganguly observed.

The China factor is also significant as Modi assesses the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.

Could the treaty be used as a weapon?

Ganguly cautions it could "easily backfire".

"It would be a very risky and fraught strategy that could easily backfire. It would entail violating a solemn, international obligation and more to the point shift the weight of global public opinion in Pakistan's favour. Worse still, Pakistan's all-weather ally, the PRC, could also hurt India in the northeast," he said.

In this scenario, Ganguly opines that the US will continue with its "deeply flawed" balancing act.

"Unfortunately, the Obama administration, which is the victim of bad domestic advice on Pakistan, is also hugging an elusive hope of Pakistani compliance will continue with its deeply flawed balancing act. It fails to realise that it is steadily alienating even its supporters in India," Ganguly said in response to whether he sees US taking a strong stand against Pakistan or will it opt for a balancing act.

--IANS

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