The Election Commission of India has announced dates for Assembly elections in five states later this year. Chhattisgarh goes to the polls first, starting on November 11; it will have two rounds of voting, as elections in Naxalite-hit areas require extra security. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will vote two and three weeks later, respectively. Finally, Delhi and Mizoram will vote on December 4. Attention will be focused especially on the four states in the northern belt, as observers attempt to discern patterns that will be relevant for judging how the parliamentary elections scheduled for next year will turn out. North India is the big battleground between the incumbent Congress and its challenger, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); and Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi feature straight fights between the two. In the last round of elections, in late 2008, the Congress wrested Rajasthan from the BJP in a narrow victory, and retained Delhi. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh remained with the BJP. The big takeaway from that election was that national security - several rounds of voting were held in the shadow of the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai - would not likely be an issue on which the BJP could challenge the Congress. Similar inferences are likely to be drawn after this round as well.
Most crucial, perhaps, is questioning whether what appears to be a general mood of discontent will translate into changes in voting patterns. Is there an air of anti-incumbency? If so, will it hurt the Congress most, ruling in Delhi and Rajasthan - or the BJP, ruling in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh? In Delhi, often seen as a proxy for urban constituencies across the country, will voters punish a Congress leadership seen as out of touch and tolerant of corruption? In Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and in Delhi Sheila Dikshit are seen as contenders for a larger role on the national stage. Their profiles will be raised if they are returned to office again. For Mr Chouhan in particular, who is positioning himself as a more moderate alternative to Narendra Modi within the BJP, and one more acceptable to prospective allies, this election will be crucial. The results will also be pored over for hints as to whether the ruling United Progressive Alliance's expansion of rights-based schemes meets with the approval of voters. And, even if it does, it is far from clear whether voters will feel grateful to the Congress for it or, in Madhya Pradesh or Chhattisgarh, reward BJP governments that have implemented government schemes well. Another question that may partly be answered is whether India's macroeconomic slowdown and high inflation matter more to voters, or the rise in real incomes that has benefited many across India's rural heartland.
Finally, these are the first elections to introduce the "none of the above", or NOTA, alternative for voters. If, indeed, there is disenchantment with the political system, then the NOTA votes will provide a handy guide to its magnitude. In Delhi there is also an anti-establishment challenger in the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) of Arvind Kejriwal. How the AAP and NOTA do in this round of elections will indicate whether the loud rumblings of discontent in India's middle class have any electoral significance or not.
