A K Bhattacharya: The 16 years that made the difference

NEW DELHI DIARY

Crystal gazing is not an easy task. Even the best can falter in this game. Homi Jehangir Bhabha, considered to be the father of India's nuclear weapons programme, also played a major role in developing India's atomic energy potential. But he went completely wrong in his forecast.

In a radio talk, delivered on August 3, 1964, Bhabha said: "There is little doubt that before the end of the century, atomic energy will be producing a substantial part of the power in India, and thereafter practically all the additions to our power generation will come from it at that time".

In 2007, India's total installed power generation capacity is estimated at 135,000 Mw, in which the share of atomic energy is the lowest, at 3.1 per cent. Thermal power accounts for 64.5 per cent, with the share of hydroelectric power and renewable energy remaining at 24.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively. Going by the latest projections of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, the share of thermal power may only increase. And atomic energy, in spite of the boost the recently signed Indo-US deal is expected to give to this sector, may continue to see only marginal growth.

There are many more glaring examples of how predictions about the future have often gone off the mark, causing huge embarrassment for those who made the forecasts. A less difficult task, therefore, is to recount how events have unfolded in the past. The big safety in this exercise is that there is virtually no risk of going wrong. Thus, on a day when India celebrates the completion of 60 years of its Independence, looking back at how things have changed""and changed completely""can also be highly instructive. What has changed is often a good pointer to how things should be changed in the future.

So, here is a randomly chosen list of changes that have taken place in the last six decades and redefined the lives of most Indians. One, an ordinary Indian citizen does not have to wait for ten years to get a telephone connection. The big differentiator in the four and a half decades after Independence used to be whether you had a telephone connection or not. Even if you had the money, you could not get one, unless you were a "very important person". And if you had a phone, you were seen as one belonging to a privileged class. That differentiator, mercifully, has gone. Today, if you want it, a phone is available on a day's notice.

Two, you do not have to book a two-wheeler or a car before you can actually purchase it. No longer is there a waiting period""which often used to be as long as ten years before you could get yourself a two-wheeler through a proper channel. There was a thriving black market where you could shorten your wait for purchasing a two-wheeler or a car by paying a premium that was often up to half the official price of the vehicle. In the 1980s, a two-wheeler company with an annual production capacity of about 100,000 units had a booking for about 2.8 million vehicles. All that has changed with economic liberalisation and competition. Instead of paying a premium, a buyer now can get a discount and there is no waiting period.

Three, buying a railway ticket is no more a day-long exercise, as it used to be in the past""standing in a long queue and often finding that the counter had shut just before your turn finally came. Now you can buy your railway ticket sitting in front of a computer and exercise the choice of either having the ticket delivered at your residence or getting a print-out of an electronic ticket. In respect of airlines also, your dependence on Indian Airlines as the only airline that could fly you to different cities has come to an end. Now you have the choice to decide which airline gives you a lower fare and a better package.

Four, you do not have to stand in a queue outside a Reserve Bank of India counter to first get hold of a foreign exchange permit and then collect against that the measly amount of foreign currency that the central bank allowed you to carry on your foreign travels. Now, there are no queues and no foreign exchange permit. The foreign exchange that every Indian is allowed to carry on an overseas visit is more than adequate. In any case, Indians today are allowed the facility of international credit cards, which they can use for transactions abroad.

This list can be longer. But the message from all these instances is the same: Life in the last decade and a half, in particular, has changed primarily because of the easing of restrictions on economic activities, more competition for producers and more choices for consumers in this period. The follies of the first 44 years after Independence have been set right in the 16 years that followed.

Those who are celebrating today the arrival of India as an economic powerhouse should, therefore, pause and ponder if all that has been achieved in 60 years of India's Independence could have been theirs without the economic reforms programme implemented in the last 16 years. It is time, therefore, to celebrate not just 60 years of Independence, but also the 16 years of economic reforms and resolve to remove all hurdles that might come in the way of future reforms.