A macro, financial & regulatory cocktail

Future growth in output, incomes and employment will depend on how macro, financial and regulatory issues are handled now

Four months ago I had rung some alarm bells about macroeconomic developments and pressures (“Macro stability at risk”, Business Standard, July 12, 2018). While recognising the negative effects of elevated oil prices, international trade wars and the reversal in capital inflows to some emerging countries (including India), the article drew attention to some major medium-term weaknesses in India's macro-economy. In particular it cited “the deep and long-drawn crisis in India's public sector banks and the big deficit in foreign trade, caused, in large part, by the unfortunate stagnation in India’s merchandise exports…”. Both these factors continue to pressure India's macro