A recession in the US?

The inflation data over the coming six months will be critical

Last month Deutsche Bank (DB) became the first major investment bank to predict an outright recession in the US by the end of 2023. The bank expects the European Union to follow suit in 2024. While other investment banks are now raising the probability of a US recession, DB remains the only one with a US recession as its base case.

Given that it is at one end of the spectrum, and its position has not yet been fully discounted by markets, it is worth examining the rationale of the DB argument. Economists at DB have also recently come out with