Aditi Phadnis: A time to give

PLAIN POLITICS

With her allies deserting her, Rajasthan's chief minister has a huge problem.

Fifty-six thousand seven hundred and nineteen Gujjars are currently lodged in jails all over Rajasthan. They have ruled out taking bail till their demand, that they be counted as adivasis and be entitled to reservations in education and jobs, is conceded. They say they are not asking for anything that is unreasonable. The promise to give them scheduled tribe status was made by Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje herself.

At the recent Rajasthan Jat Mahasabha, a convention of the politically powerful caste, not only was Raje roundly criticised for her "feudal style" of functioning but the Jats regretted having ever supported the BJP. The house resolved that it would float a Jat party that would keep both the BJP and the Congress at bay and would fight for interests of Jats and other reserved category classes. A resolution condemning the "atrocities" meted out to farmers by the BJP government was also passed. Observers say that in the next election, for the first time ever, Rajasthan might see a government coming to power that is headed neither by the Congress nor by the BJP.

Thus, the wheel has turned a full circle for Raje who led the BJP to a historic victory in the assembly elections of December 2003. Because of some strategic thinking by Raje and her advisors, the BJP got an unprecedented 120 seats out of 200. Of these, 57 were seats that the BJP had never won since 1952. As a result of some last minute deals, the Jats turned away from the Congress and voted for the BJP, in itself no mean achievement for a party which was never supported by the Jats so long as Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, a Rajput, headed the BJP in Rajasthan. In 19 seats, the BJP encouraged the Congress to set up parallel (read rebel) candidates who split the Congress votes, ensuring the BJP's victory. Privately Shekhawat had predicted 70 seats for Raje.

Today, observers say that if an election is held tomorrow, the Congress is not likely to go beyond the 40 seat mark; but the BJP's tally will also hover around that number. How could someone with so much have lost it all so quickly?

Not all of it is Raje's doing. Her advisors have much to answer for. But at the end of the day, she's the one who appointed them.

In macro terms, Rajasthan has done well. In 2003-04, the state's revenue deficit was 30 percent of revenue receipts. In the budget for fiscal 2007-08, the Chief Minister announced a Rs 358-crore surplus budget . The fiscal deficit by the end of 2007 is expected to be 3.58 per cent of the gross state domestic product against 7.09 percent in 2002-03. Raje admitted that it was the Value Added Tax (VAT) regime that had helped the state to increase its tax revenue but added that sales tax collections had gone up 20 per cent from the previous year and added that this was largely a result of simplification of procedures.

But alongside, Rajasthan has seen the police fire on farmers who were demonstrating against lack of water (2005). The government has been unable to ensure real estate developers "" who are beating a path to Rajasthan's door following the decision to allow 100 per cent private investment in real estate under a new township policy (2006) "" get physical control of the land. Public interest litigation cases are on in Jaipur and other cities against some of the most prominent developers, filed by farmers because their land was bought at a pittance to give to developers. At least two ministers "" Ghanshyam Tiwari and Narpat Singh Rajvi "" came out in the open against the Chief Minister's style of functioning because of the Government's "unilateral decision" to allocate land for several mega projects along the Jaipur-Delhi and Jaipur-Ajmer highways which is causing agitating farmers to come out on the roads (Tiwari's constituency Sanganer was badly hit by a farmers' agitation. The state government overlooked the agitation and announced it would go ahead with its projects). Anger against the Vasundhara Raje government is running high and unused to the hostility, Raje herself is reacting with anger and vengefulness rather than through politics.

Her rage was public in Dholpur last month when she hit out at her critics "" most of whom are in her own party and therefore, her own creation. Tiwari was punished for speaking out of turn "" he is now a minister without portfolio. Rajvi is the industries minister but he frequently does not know industrial projects that are okayed by government "" it is the Rajasthan Industrial Development and Investment Corp (RIICO) that has the last word in this sector. As this is headed by a bureaucrat rather than a politician and is directly under the Chief Minister's protection.

Raje's friends say the Rajasthan government's get-rich-quick approach to development is the reason for her unpopularity. Politicians are barriers while bureaucrats are enablers. So to secure its place in the sun for Rajasthan, Raje has had to rely on the bureaucracy much more than party colleagues. Not used to being cut out of deals, they are angry.

Raje is not a gracious loser. There is a time to take and a time to give. The time to give "" to political opponents especially "" is now. But unfortunately, despite having started out right, things are winding down for Raje. If the Bahujan Samaj Party enters Rajasthan, it will ensure certain defeat for the BJP.

Raje could do with some lessons on how to make friends and keep them.