Aditi Phadnis: Amrinder's SAD story

PLAIN POLITICS

More than anything else, it's going to be a vote against sitting MLAs.

With less than a week to go for the results of the 116-member Punjab Assembly to come out, bureaucrats are busy clearing their files and pending work. It is now almost certain that consistent with the history of elections in the state, the anti-incumbency element is going to propel the election into the lap of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine. Fifty-nine is the majority the party must have to form a government. The Congress tally is likely to be closer to 35 than 55.

How could this have happened ? Whatever the result, this was not a vote against Amrinder Singh. It was against sitting MLAs. Wherever the Congress managed to change or replace the sitting MLA, it stands a better chance of winning.

Here Amrinder Singh had his own problems. That factionalism and internal sabotage hurt the Congress is the state party's worst kept secret. But no one appreciated the full extent of the damage. It doesn't need a rocket scientist to work out that the Rajinder Kaur Bhattal faction, the Shamsher Singh Dullo faction and the Jagmeet Brar faction all worked against each other and collectively against Amrinder Singh. The Congress is expecting to do badly in the Doaba and Majha areas. In Malwa, traditionally the Akali Dal stronghold, ironically, it expects to do better. This is because the sitting Akali Dal MLAs have slipped from grace. In many ways, this proves the vote is against the sitting MLAs and the Congress's inability to strip the deadwood.

The problem of factionalism was not absent in the SAD-BJP combine "" it was just handled better. When the sitting MLA from Bhatinda, Chiranji Lal, was denied a nomination, Prakash Singh Badal went to his home to apologise and pacify him. Badal micromanaged the poll to ensure there were no Akali Dal rebels left standing in the field.

Within the SAD, there were plenty of elements who could have posed a challenge to Badal. One of the main reasons "" apart from existential ones, of course "" for Badal's defeat in the last assembly elections was the presence of the Tohra faction led by Prem Singh Chandumajra. Chandumajra was considered a staunch loyalist of the 27-term president of the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC), the late GS Tohra. His able lieutenant, Baldev Singh Mann, is considered close to Tamil Nadu Governor, SS Barnala, and was expelled by Badal in 2004 for anti-party activities. Barely a month before the election, both Chandumajra and Mann were back in the SAD following a personal appeal by Badal. Chandumajra's candidature from Lehragaga was significant as the constituency has returned the present deputy chief minister, Rajinder Kaur Bhattal, thrice consecutively. If Bhattal loses, we will know why.

This election is significant for it illustrates the emergence of a second generation of leaders in Akali politics. Yes, of course, the patriarch of Akali politics continues to be the senior Badal. But this election also signifies the clear ascendency of son Sukhbir as the leader of the SAD, effectively scotching the chances of Capt Kanwaljeet, for long considered Badal's number two. It was Sukhbir who toured the length and breadth of the state, while Kanwaljeet was kept confined to Kharar where his son is contesting the seat. The same goes for SS Dhindsa, the other potential challenger, also kept confined to managing his son's election.

But make no mistake. Amrinder Singh is not blameless in all of this. He frittered away the first 18 months of his regime, carrying out a bitter witch-hunt against the Badals, however legitimate. The development of the state, which is increasingly becoming the touchstone for elections all over India, came a poor second priority and began only towards the fag end of his innings. Price rise had its effect on the election. Other heads are going to roll for this, but that story will unfold in the politics that will be played out in the Congress at the Centre. The inaccessibility of the chief minister is legendary. He was fighting his own natural inclinations as well as his party.

So what does Punjab under a new dispensation look like? While Prakash Singh Badal has been projected as chief minister, the campaign has prepared Sukhbir "" not best known for his administrative brilliance or innovative ideas for governance "" for the job. Aided more than ably by his wife, Sukhbir has a chance to come into his own. He has two important aides. Naresh Gujral, the son of former Prime Minister IK Gujral is nursing a constituency with a view to entering the Lok Sabha in 2009 and wants to participate in the politics of Punjab. Tarlochan Singh, legendary aide to former President Giani Zail Singh and currently in the Rajya Sabha, combines rustic common sense with experience.

With Gujral's sophistication and Singh's experience, the new government might be able to present some new governance ideas to a beleaguered people "" well, there's no law against hoping!