Aditi Phadnis: Can he do the impossible?

PLAIN POLITICS

Even Mulayam Singh's friends rule out the Samajwadi Party's return to power in UP.

The occasion was a meeting to condole the death of veteran Hindi journalist Bhanu Pratap Shukla. Those who knew the doughty warrior of words knew that though the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh owned Shukla, he could be as trenchant a critic of the Sangh "family" "" especially the BJP "" as he was of his sworn political adversaries. (In fact, he was sacked from the editorship of Panchjanya under pressure from the BJP when he wrote an editorial asking it to lead, follow or get out of the way). Shukla's pieces were barbed, sharp, sarcastic "" and they really hurt. Mulayam Singh Yadav has suffered ridicule many times at Shukla's hands "" both when Yadav was in opposition and when he was chief minister.

Everyone was surprised, therefore, when Yadav walked into the meeting. With less than six months to go for Uttar Pradesh elections, surely Yadav did not want the odium of attending a meeting of a functionary of the Sangh, a man who was an associate of Golwalkar? But not only did Yadav attend the meeting, he also spoke. "We had our differences, Bhanuji and I. But I shared with Bhanuji, his love for Hindi," Yadav said, recalling the many services Shukla had rendered. Faced with a sea of saffron, he may have baulked a bit and before any of the sanyasis present could remind him of the way he had treated them during L K Advani's rath yatra, he left. But not before he had impressed many in the audience of his political maturity. After all, with rumours that the Sangh and the Vishva Hindu Parishad were not going to work for the BJP in the Assembly elections, what could he possibly lose by trying to get round their right side? True, they would never work for him, but at least they might mute the volume of the tirade against him.

Unfortunately, the time for that kind of sophistry is past. At this point, even his friends are shaking their heads and saying that it will be impossible for the Samajwadi Party (SP) government in UP to return to power. These are no fly-by-night friends. They are the Left parties who supported Yadav even after he betrayed them (he opposed their candidate, Capt Lakshmi Sehgal for the Presidentship of India by suggesting APJ Abdul Kalam's name to the BJP, which jumped at it. After that, Atal Bihari Vajpayee thanked Yadav and told him: "aap sachche rashtravadi hain "" you're a true nationalist).

Clearly, even Yadav is getting the feeling that the ground might shift from under his feet because he's been making moves that smack of political desperation. His current pet project is an unemployment dole (all registered unemployment youth are to be called to camps and given Rs 500 each for an unspecified period of time "" a kind of employment guarantee scheme a la Yadav that will cost the state Rs 250 crore on a conservative estimate. There is no way of telling where the money is going). The Kanya Dhan Yojana (a Rs 20,000 fixed deposit for an only girl child in a below poverty line family who has passed an intermediate exam) will cost Rs 600 crore for just this year. The distribution of free saris is on all over the state.

True, all these are caste-neutral projects, in the sense that all castes can access them. But it is hard for voters to forget all the caste-specific moves that Yadav made till some months ago. He announced the recruitment of 11,000 constables and the revival of posts of 5,000 police constables. His critics say you can put your finger on any police station and it will hit half a dozen Yadavs. Hindu sage Parashuram's birthday has been declared a public holiday in UP, ostensibly as a move to win over Brahmins. It doesn't look as if it is going to work. The release of POTA detenue Raghunath Prasad Singh (Raja Bhaiyya) to seek caste endorsement from the Thakurs is yet to be tested.

All this would have been overlooked by the people if there had been some semblance of law and order in the state. This continues to be the biggest problem in UP. A shootout in the Mohammadabad led to the assassination of BJP MP Krishnanand Rai. No angel himself, Rai was engaged in a bitter rivalry with Samajwadi-supported local strongman Mukhtar Ansari. Rai's killers are yet to be located. The same area saw communal riots a year ago and Yadav admitted that law and order was a challenge for the state government. But he kept absolutely quiet when his minister of state, Haji Yakoub, announced a reward for anyone who would behead the cartoonist in a Danish newspaper who had allegedly vilified the Prophet Mohammad. Although there have been only sporadic incidents of communal tension since, UP remains volatile, edgy and in danger of tipping over any time.

So what does all this mean? Unfortunately, there seems little or no empathy among the national political parties to the mood. Following Rai's murder, the BJP called a Nyaya yatra all over the state to emphasise on the absence of law and order. The third phase of the yatra was called off altogether. The Congress, under the leadership of Pramod Tewari, launched the Jan Vishwas Abhiyan yatra. Has anyone heard of it?

The Mulayam Singh Yadav government has survived more than three years "" and even though the total tenure has come in three separate stints, he is the first chief minister of UP keep his job that long since 1952. He has three challengers right now. The relatively less important ones are former Prime Minister V P Singh and his Jan Morcha, sure to nibble away chunks of the SP's backward vote; and Ajit Singh, whose Rashtriya Lok Dal (once it can decide whom it is with) will also take away western UP from the SP "" no loss as it was never the SP's any way.

But after the death of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Kanshi Ram, the Dalits and backward Muslims in UP are going to pour their hearts out for Mayawati. This Assembly election is going to be Mayawati's triumph. Any party that gets 160 out of the 402 assembly seats in the state can claim a sweeping victory. At this point, only Mayawati is headed in that direction.