Aditi Phadnis: Clear and present danger

PLAIN POLITICS

His Majesty, King Gyanendra of Nepal, was on a whistlestop tour of the African continent last month. The pace he set was dizzying. First Tunis, to attend the International Information Society Summit meeting, then, after a stop in Tanzania, to visit soldiers from the Royal Nepal Army in Burundi on a UN PeaceKeeping mission, to South Africa. While in Nepal, Gyanendra might be the head of the King Mahendra Wildlife Conservation Trust and custodian of all the national parks in Nepal. But in South Africa, do as the Africans do. Reportedly, the chairman of the Nepal Chapter of the World Wildlife Fund, Chand Gurung, who had organised an international meeting of the WWF in Kathmandu, had to abandon the conference suddenly and was flown out to South Africa to organise an expedition "" a shooting expedition, and not one using mere cameras either "" for the King.

Refreshed from his Africa sojourn, the King came back and undertook a massive reshuffle of his cabinet. Among those who were sacked was his finance minister, the inoffensive Madhukar Rana. A few months earlier, the World Bank, in its Nepal Portfolio Performance Review (2005), had noted that the Bank's project portfolio performance was under severe stress due to increasing political uncertainty and the worsening security condition related to the insurgency. "Based on developments during the last several months, which include an escalation of violence, related to insurgency, a possibility of another economic slowdown and deterioration in macro-economic performance, and an uncertain political scenario in the months ahead, it is expected that portfolio performance will continue under additional stress," the report said. Rana was presumably sacked as punishment for non-performance. But all the reasons cited by the Bank for the economy's poor performance lay the blame at the king's door. So why shoot the piano player?

But then, what's new? There are about 20 new faces in the 35-member council of ministers. None of them has distinguished themselves in any way "" beyond a display of obsequious loyalty to the king.

If Gyanendra had been more experienced at ruling "" as opposed to reigning "" he might have recognised the value of the political signals Kathmandu was sending. A day before he returned, the Maoists announced an extension of the three-month unilateral ceasefire. This was a prelude to the 12-point Letter of Understanding (LoU) they have signed with seven political parties. In this the Maoists have promised to uphold civil liberties, human rights, rule of law, fundamental rights and multi-party democracy. In a word, they have made common cause with the political parties. The general expectation was that in response, King Gyanendra would meet them halfway, start talks with them and political parties, and show in action, what he has been promising: restoration of multiparty democracy in two years. However, the Palace pretended as if nothing had happened. The only reaction was from Chief of Army Staff Gen Pyar Jung Thapa, who said that the extension of the ceasefire was only "croooked manipulation" by the Maoists. The Royal Nepal Army (RNA) fortified itself against Nepal's only known enemy "" the Maoists "" with arms bought from China and Pakistan. Delivery of these arms was taken last month. The Indian establishment pretended to look the other way.

Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's visit to Kathmandu earlier this week took place against this background, but it was clear that an almost two-hour meeting with Gynanendra yielded little. The king appears to suffer from an audio-deficit affliction when sensible advice is offered to him. India tried to tell him again, that the institution of a functioning monarchy was antithetical in this day and age, and persistence in this course could have the effect of removing an important pillar of Nepalese society, so great would be the resistance.

But Gynanendra might have to sit up and listen, and really soon. On January 5, 2006, the Supreme Court of Nepal will give its verdict on the constitutionality of the Royal Commission on Corruption Control (RCCC), because of which former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deupa is in jail. If the Supreme Court dares to challenge the creation of the RCCC, the king could find himself in serious trouble.

On January 6, the transit treaty between India and Nepal that governs points of entry to the two countries along the open border will be renegotiated. India wants immigration and customs data for all the checkposts but Nepal is unwilling to oblige, visions of a 1989-like shutdown of the trade and transit treaties dancing around in Kathmandu's collective bureaucratic mind. If India chooses to act tough and puts impossible transit conditions on Nepal (like reducing the number of transit points from 15 to two), the country could be put to great human and economic hardship.

But the real threat to Nepal might take some time to come to fruition. All the reports from a variety of intelligence agencies "" including western countries "" indicate that there is restlessness in the RNA. As this is the only constitutional force that is still backing the king, this cannot be good news. The new and unprecedented empowerment of the RNA has brought problems in its wake. Earlier this week, the Army opened fire on a civilian crowd in Nagarkot, killing 12 people, indicating just how trigger-happy it has become. Retired Army officers have been appointed as ambassadors and super civil servants. Huge purchases are being made and the talk in the mess, especially among younger officers, is about the enrichment of some of their seniors. The RNA reflects the same caste disparity and discrimination evident in Nepalese society. This was one reason for the growth of the Maoist movement. The Maoists have begun the process of sensitising rural Nepal to caste grievance. The RNA cannot hope to remain untouched indefinitely by this.

If even a small section of the RNA begins to have doubts about the King, the edifice he has so carefully created and nurtured might come crashing down. What could follow should be cause for serious concern, especially in Nepal's neighbourhood. A storm is gathering over Machhupuchchere. Worry about it.