On the face of it, life seems to be returning to some semblance of normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir and this is going to be the likely trend, especially when the government shifts the capital from Srinagar to Jammu in the coming days. Although schools are still shut, young people are off the roads because farms and orchards need every hand they can get - it is time for harvesting paddy, fruit and dry fruit.
Media reports say 1,000 to 1,200 trucks of apple are reaching mandis in Jammu and Delhi daily. Sushobha Barve, a social activist who has been engaged in outreach in the state, was in the valley recently and quotes the commissioner secretary, horticulture, in the state government as confirming that the Sopore mandi had reopened although she does accept that fruit growers of north Kashmir are having some difficulty in transporting apples to outside markets through Banihal Pass. The figures are interesting. In September 2015, there were 5,800 fresh fruit trucks and 82 dry fruit trucks that reached mandis outside J&K. In the corresponding period this year, 15,930 fresh fruit trucks and 156 dry fruit trucks have gone from the valley to outside markets.
So unsettling conditions have not had an adverse impact on one of the primary sources of livelihood? Officials told Barve that fruit growers panicked that their produce might not find its way outside the valley. As it is, local mandis were inoperational at the beginning of the season. Buyers who had already paid for the fruit panicked as well, believing their money had gone down the drain. This, when added to the pervasive feeling that things could get worse before they could get better led to panic harvesting.
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Barve says when she spoke to the owner of a cold storage, he told her less fruit had been arriving at cold storages. Fruit growers seem to be getting a good price, as outside the state, normal market conditions rule - there is no glut and people are buying. The only complaint she heard was that transporters were overcharging for the trucks. Government officials confirmed to Barve that panic harvesting was on; and as a result there was a shortage of trucks. There is little the government can or has the capacity to do in this matter: transport pricing is controlled by market forces.
Barve says the quiet role played by the state horticulture department in maintaining normalcy in the sowing and harvesting routine has not been appreciated enough. The horticulture department had ordered 120,000 saplings of a new variety of apple. The air-conditioned containers carrying these arrived at the Banihal pass at the peak of protests in August. They could not move further into the valley for two days.
The government arranged to transport these containers through the night, hired a cold storage for a month to store the saplings in it and will distribute them onwards. Fruit trucks from south Kashmir face fewer difficulties as they use the Mughal road route to Jammu. Fortunately, the Jammu transporters, trade and business community have been cooperative and ensured that fruit trucks would continue to ply without difficulties.
Jammu's economy is entwined with Kashmir's. Local chatter suggests that separatists, realising a call for hartals at the peak of the harvesting season would be viewed with hostility by the locals, have staggered their protest programme until after mid- and end-October - by when the harvesting of paddy and apple would be over.
What is worrying is the delay in reopening schools. At first it was only directives that schools will not open. These have now been replaced by physical damage to school structures. All this is creating further anxiety among the local population. If children are not in school and protesters are in jail, it is only a matter of time before the age of the protesters gets younger and younger.
One problem is that the paramilitary forces are using schools as camps. Their very presence is an irritant to Kashmiris and their "occupation" of schools, even more so. The onus of getting these areas vacated lies with both the central and the state government.
But what is worrying Kashmir observers is a prolonged, endless stalemate. No one is ready to concede that the people of the state have a grievance, much less address it. The elephant in the room is, paradoxically, the state government - it has to reach out to the alienated sections of the population but it is the government the separatists are least interested in talking to.
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
