In Uttarakhand, the “fauji factor” is as much a part of the political equation as caste in many other states in India. Nearly 40 per cent of the population of the hill state comprises soldiers, former army officers, their families and service voters. Ex-servicemen can make or break the fortunes of established political players. Probably recognising this, former Chief of Army Staff, Gen V K Singh, visited Dehradun recently at the invitation of Gen T P S Rawat, who is an active politician. At a meeting attended by around 180 former servicemen, Gen Singh found representatives of seven organisations claiming to represent them. There are at least 11 more. Singh advised them to forget their differences and join hands, if they wanted to become a formidable force. So far, there has been no move in that direction.
But veterans concede that the Congress (which won all the five Lok Sabha seats in the last general election) might not be able to repeat its previous performance. Satpal Maharaj who represents Pauri could lose out, if Gen Singh’s advice is heeded. But another important reason is Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna.
Everyone, even the Congress, concedes that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP’s) Gen B C Khanduri has been the best chief minister the state has known. In his tenure, he was instrumental in getting the Uttarakhand Lokayukta Bill, 2011, passed, bringing the chief minister, other ministers and members of legislative Assembly (MLAs) within its ambit. The Uttarakhand Right to Service Act established special courts to deal with corruption cases on an everyday basis, along with the Uttarakhand Transfer of Public Servants Act that attempted to deal with bureaucratic corruption. He also added to the infrastructure of the state in the way that he knows best — by building roads.
But when the BJP leadership began playing games with him, promoting factions in the Uttarakhand party – first B S Koshiyari and then Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank – Khanduri was forced to accept that one needed to do more than make roads and provide water to stay in power. His supporters said every party needed money to stay in power. And the money had to come from somewhere.
In the 2012 Assembly elections, not only did the BJP lose but Khanduri lost his own seat Kotdwar — much to the consternation of the party. The Congress prepared to form a government, after a lot of drama by Harish Rawat who, rightly, felt he had scripted the party’s victory both in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. However, the party high command thought Vijay Bahuguna, former high court judge and a new Congressman, was better suited for the job. Rawat was moved up in the Centre to a Cabinet portfolio, and the hunt began for a “safe” seat from which Bahuguna – who was a member of Parliament – could be elected to the Assembly.
Bahuguna asserted that he was his own man. He opted not to disturb any sitting MLA; instead he did a deal with a BJP MLA. Uttarakhand has a large population of Bengali origin and most of them are settled around Sitarganj, an emerging industrial area. For years, they have been seeking domicile status (according to extant policy, a person of non-Uttarakhand domicile can only buy 250 sq yards of land in the state). Bahuguna assured the MLA he would ensure the status of “mool nivasi” to the Bengalis, tossed in other incentives, made him to resign and announced he would contest from Sitarganj. Hence, the Congress added another seat to its tally of 32 in a House of 70, and the other side suffered a one-seat attrition.
But the party was in for a shock. Express instructions were issued by Bahuguna that no party leader should campaign for him in Sitarganj. Block-level leaders said they were told to stay away from the poll. Bahuguna wanted to establish that he could win the election without any help from the party – which he viewed as a captive of Harish Rawat. He campaigned along with his wife and son. He won that election by a margin of nearly 40,000 votes. It was the highest margin in the Assembly.
Buoyed by the victory, Bahuguna proceeded to consolidate his hold over the party and the government. He demanded his second prize: that the Lok Sabha seat vacated by him, Tehri, should be given to his son Saket. Once again, no party leader from the state was invited to campaign, with the Bahuguna family apparently secure that its own resources would be enough. The most high-profile campaigner for Saket was actor Sanjay Dutt. The BJP won the election by a 20,000-vote margin. Humiliated, the Congress made excuses. “It is just a reflection of the people’s anger against the hike in prices of diesel and the cap on subsidised LPG cylinders, a decision which came shortly before the bypoll,” Congress leaders said. But the fact is that the party was simply not involved in the campaign.
What does all this tell us? One, the last Lok Sabha by poll to be fought was Tehri. The Congress lost. Two, former servicemen in Uttarakhand are yearning for a leader but the BJP has left a vacuum that others are exploring. Three, to be sure, price rise and inflation are election issues. But the party organisation can surmount this — if it is strong and is deployed effectively. If Uttarakhand is any indication, the Congress is faced with a choice — it can either create the new congressman or win elections.
