After its victories in Haryana and Maharashtra and its success in dislodging the Congress in these states, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is looking at displacing the Congress from Karnataka. Assembly elections are due in the state only in 2018. But the party has already got down to business and its priority is to gradually introduce a fresh new face in a leadership role that will be able to catch the imagination of the people of Karnataka.
The current BJP leadership is neither particularly dynamic nor innovative. BS Yeddyurappa, the most important BJP face in Karnataka and a former chief minister, may have been relevant once. But caught in scandals and having actually been in jail for corruption, Yeddyurappa can no longer be the BJP's poster boy. Moreover, in regional terms, the BJP's base in north Karnataka could propel the party to search for its new leadership from this region.
Regional politics in Karnataka in relation to the growth and development of the BJP in the state is quite an interesting story. The principal architect of the party was the legendary U Rama Bhat, who started from his constituency, Puttur, and built up the party in the Mengaluru plains. This area already had a strong Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh presence, because Mengaluru is on the Kerala-Karnataka border. Bhat leveraged the apprehensions of the farmers in this region over the incursions of largely Muslim landowners from Kerala, just across the border. In the 1983 assembly elections, many of those who are important figures in the BJP today like Dhananjaya Kumar, VS Acharya and DV Sadananda Gowda were elected MLAs, some for the first time, under the tutelage of Rama Bhat from this region. 11 out of 18 BJP MLAs in 1983 came from north Karnataka. There was little traction for the BJP in those days beyond big farmer lobbies - owners of large plantation tracts of areca nut, cashew nut and coffee - in north Karnataka.
In the 1985 Assembly elections, the BJP lost all its political base. Rama Bhat himself lost and Yeddyurappa won from Shikaripura in Shimoga, but the BJP's MLAs could be counted on the fingers of one hand. This vacuum in north Karnataka was exploited by Ramakrishna Hegde who came to power with a comfortable majority. But the 1989 elections brought with them a strong Congress wave and the BJP was stymied.
However the real uptick in the BJP's fortunes in Karnataka could be seen in the wake of the 1991 Hindutva movement. A sophisticated urban centre like Bangalore (now Bengaluru) tended to vote Left (Communist Party of India had a strong presence in the city at one time). But Hindutva found resonance in Bangalore as well. Moreover, the BJP made a strategic alliance with Hindu mathas that are influential in the countryside in Karnataka. It was Yeddyurappa who mediated and arranged to win over the Siddaganga matha in Tumkur district. The 1991 Lok Sabha elections saw four BJP MPs being elected from Karnataka for the first time.
Between 1991 and 2001, the BJP grew and grew. By the time the 2004 Lok Sabha elections came around, of the 96 seats in the 12 undivided districts of north Karnataka, the BJP, for the first time, won 41. In the 2008 elections, it won a record 56 seats. But the growth in its leadership could not match the growth of its base. BB Shivappa, another legendary BJP leader who was responsible for the BJP's growth and development in regions like Hassan and Mandya, developed bitter differences and was expelled from the party. In these years, the party had the chance of profiting from the demise of the Janata Party of Ramakrishna Hegde, but much of this group joined the Congress. There seemed to be no Devendra Fadnavis or Manohar Parrikar in the Karnataka BJP.
This is not a new problem. The growth of the BJP in rural Karnataka was so rapid, often it had to 'import' leaders. In the 1999 Lok Sabha election, Sonia Gandhi contested from Bellary, and to pin her down to the constituency, the BJP imported Sushma Swaraj. Because the BJP had no presence in Bellary that had been a Congress bastion, Swaraj wooed and won over the Reddy brothers and Sriramulu.
It is to ensure growth of the party across regions in Karnataka and create a leadership that will be responsive that the BJP is on a talent hunt. An Anantha Kumar or Jagadish Shettar is seen as inadequate to handle governance in a complex state like Karnataka. Identity politics has also run its course: so Lingayat or Vokkaliga (the two dominant rulings castes in Karnataka) appeal alone will not attract younger voters. There is also the question of developing leadership for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
The second generation BJP leaders include CT Ravi, the 44-year-old Vokkaliga MLA from Chikkamagaluru; V Sunil Kumar, 39, an Idiga representing Karkala in Udupi district; and BJP state unit president Prahlad Joshi, 52, a Brahmin. The party has so far been identified with Lingayats because of Yeddyurappa. This trend could be changing.
There is no doubt that anti-incumbency is at work in Karnataka and dissatisfaction against the Congress government is rising. At the same time, the BJP has a problem with extreme groups like the Sri Rama Sene. It is looking for a younger leadership that can rein in these elements and yet give the Congress a fitting fight.
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