His predecessors have defined the job, there is no fixed format.
Another Republic Day. Another National Security Advisor (NSA), Shiv Shankar Menon. What’s this one going to do?
First, what he’s going to do that people are afraid of: Act as a super foreign secretary, micro-manage foreign policy, run the foreign office…
The fears are not unfounded. The temptation of doing what you’ve been trained to do for 40 years is great. The job has been defined by the people who’ve occupied the post, so there’s no template.
You had the Brajesh Mishra model: He was the one-stop advisor to the prime minister (PM) on everything that included security, strategic dialogues with a dozen countries and the nuclear doctrine; but virtually at war with the rest of PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s council of ministers. There were at least two attempts to oust him, one when Jaswant Singh acted as the emissary of LK Advani and George Fernandes.
Then there was JN Dixit who had a relatively truncated brief and was determined to leave India’s — and his own — imprimatur on the world. At the height of the Maoist blockade of Kathmandu, which saw Nepal’s capital being cut off from the supply of essential commodities, he convened a meeting of the three service chiefs in the PMO to discuss the feasibility of airdropping supplies, a throwback to the 1987 breadbombing in Jaffna. The Nepalese were both aghast and terrified at the move which some saw as a first in the imminent takeover of Nepal by India a la Sikkim. Ridiculous, but there it is.
And then there was MK Narayanan, much more in the Mishra mould but different, because the nature of the Manmohan Singh PMO was different. First hamstrung by the left parties, then by his own, Singh’s ability to find administrative solutions to political problems has been limited. An ineffective home minister left a breach that the NSA filled.
So what out-of-the-box thinking is Menon going to bring to the office of the NSA?
Hard to say. But here’s a wish list.
Please fix the neighbourhood. There has to be a much more rapid consolidation of the gains in relations with Bangladesh. Since much of the problem is home ministry-centric, it is the NSA who needs to keep his eye on the ball in relation to the rest of the field.
Myanmar is going to have elections in spring or late summer, the first since 1990 when Aung San Suu Kyi won a landslide victory and was imprisoned. The Foreign Office has lots of ideas about India’s dealings with Myanmar. But, with China watching closely, sudden jerks can cause pain. The US, thousands of miles away, can afford to be prescriptive about democracy everywhere, including in Myanmar — but India is right here.
In Nepal, everything could go to hell very quickly — in May 2010, in fact, the deadline for the new Constitution. Politically, India has to decide what it wants from the Maoists — because they’re not going to go away.
A presidential election is due in Sri Lanka on January 26. President Mahinda Rajapaksa has had India’s help from time to time, but has made his political career out of winning over the Tamils militarily. His rival, Sarath Fonseka, even more so. While there is political principle involved here (rights of minorities, etc), maybe it is time India-Sri Lanka relations grew out of the Tamil question. More so as elections in Tamil Nadu in 2011 will see a changed, possibly different dispensation in the state.
Afghanistan poses the toughest challenge. US Defence Secretary Robert Gates has set the red lines for India: You’re doing a fabulous job (and spending a lot of money) on development and training but, please, just do that. No military help needed, thank you. But India knows the unparalleled relations it has with the Afghan people. This is Pakistan’s greatest envy. The West treats Afghanistan as a pimple in the world’s armpit. But it is a proud and valiant nation.
An Indian eyewitness, who was in the Afghan foreign ministry when a rocket-and-suicide bomb-combo went off recently (Foreign Minister Rangin Spanta was in the building and spent 90 minutes in the basement), had this to say about the counter-terrorism operation: “Afghan security forces were professional, there was no panic anywhere. There was hardly any international force, the whole operation was led and implemented by Afghans. Despite such a coordinated attack (suicide bombers, men with guns, rocket attacks), they were not able to enter any building nearby (Afghan central bank, different ministries, Serena Hotel) and were finished in two hours.”
A far cry from Mumbai.
And maybe, the new NSA can find it in his heart to be sympathetic to Pakistan’s multiple crises, rather than being judgmental?
Follow this space for more punditry and more gratuitous advice to Shiv Shankar Menon!
