Aditi Phadnis: Running out of time

PLAIN POLITICS

King Gyanendra united political parties and Maoists as well as ordinary citizens.

They were golfing partners once and buddies. But when they fell out, the breach was irreparable. The summoning of US Ambassador in Kathmandu, James Moriarty, to Singha Durbar and the demarche that was handed to him was in many ways symbolic of how His Majesty King Gyanendra has managed to lose friends and make enemies in the 14 months that he's been in control of Nepal.

True, remarks attributed to Moriarty were less than diplomatic. In an interview to CNN earlier this week, he is supposed to have said that conditions in Nepal were becoming messy and that the US did not want to see King Gyanendra forced to flee clinging on the wings of a helicopter. Moriarty might not have been quoted accurately by the Nepali media but the image was an evocative one and Acting Foreign Secretary Hira Bahadur Thapa summoned Moriarty and issued a frosty reminder to the envoy about diplomatic norms while "making comments on Nepal's King and other internal affairs".

For a man who could have had everything, Gyanendra has shown little grace and still less wisdom in ruling Nepal. That he assumed absolute control, suspending the Constitution, was bad enough. But what did he do after that? The quality of governance with him at the helm of affairs should have been so good that it should have shown up the mismanagement by political parties. Instead, by throwing political leaders in jail, he forced the Maoists to postpone their plans for a revolution and instead pushed them into the arms of the republican political parties. This way, the political parties got the cadres (provided by the Maoists) as well as the plank (provided by the constitutional forces). Even ordinary people who saw politicians as plunderers of the system joined forces with them against the King.

By announcing a third unilateral cease-fire, the Maoists have renewed their commitment to joining the political mainstream, something they were not ready to do when Nepal was a democracy. Gyananendra's brother Birendra refused to use the Royal Nepal Army against the Maoists, thus denying the Maoists the reason to grow. Gyanendra has sent the army after them. It is ineffectual; and the Maoists have had a reason to build themselves up.

To cause splits in the political parties should have been the easiest thing for the King. Nepal's political parties are a fractious, squabbling bunch at the best of times. With reasonable intelligence, the king could have kept them quarrelling indefinitely. But Gyanendra united those opposed to him and divided those for him. The Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) is now split into two "" with former Minister Pashupati Shamsher Jang Bahadur Rana heading a faction that believes the days of Nepal as a ruling monarchy are over.

India would have been the monarch's most dependable ally. Not so long ago, during the BJP's rule, Nepali Congress ministers who came to India used to complain that all Indian leaders were interested in knowing was whether the King was OK.

But India is now keeping all its options in Nepal. It knows the idea of a monarchy is part of the Nepali psyche. The country's traumatic reaction at the Royal Massacre not so long ago is testimony to the fact that no matter how debauched the monarchy, it is still seen by the Nepali people as part of their country's governing structure. But New Delhi's backing to a reigning monarchy has dwindled considerably from the days the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was in power "" and lately even more so.

All around him, the support of friends lies in tatters, affording little or no protection. He was encouraged by the US to defeat the Maoist terrorists otherwise they would seize power. This advice was construed by the royal regime as political shoring-up for the February 1 coup. China, Pakistan and Russia played their part in providing moral and material assistance for a regime under pressure after February 1, 2005. But in the past 17 days, there hasn't been a peep out of Moscow or Beijing, when the king needs their help the most. And the less said about the US, the better.

It is now quite clear that even with the help of the Royal Nepal Army, an absolute monarchy will just not work in Nepal any more "" not when relatives of Nepali policemen and soldiers are joining protest demonstrations in Nepalgunj, for instance, asking their kin not to shoot at unarmed young people.

Nothing less than the announcement of elections to a Constituent Assembly will get the people off the streets. The only way the king can now save face is to apply Article 127 of the constitution "" which gives him the power to "remove difficulties" "" and revive Parliament. Alternatively, he could ask the Supreme Court, where an appeal against dissolution of Parliament is pending, to give its judgement, paving the way for a fresh Parliament.

The moot question is: who will control the RNA? Even Madhav Nepal, the most measured and sober of Nepali politicians, has said that the king must hand over all powers to political parties. Only when he hands RNA over to civilian control will the stalemate in Nepal be resolved. On the other hand, doing so will reduce the Nepal Naresh to an owner of prime real estate but nothing more. Gyanendra has to take the call "" for the sake of the very people whose interest he is supposed to protect as king.