The question everyone is asking is: will Tarun Gogoi become the chief minister of Assam for the third consecutive time?
In 2001, when the Congress came to power in Assam and Tarun Gogoi took charge as chief minister of Assam, it was hard not feel a rush of sympathy for him. The outgoing Asom Gana Parishad government had left the state’s finances in a mess. Neighbouring militant groups were claiming that Assam was actually part of Greater Nagaland. And incessant migration from Bangladesh had prompted then Governor Lt General S K Sinha to warn President K R Narayanan in a report that 57 of Assam’s 126 Assembly constituencies had shown more than a 20 per cent increase in the number of voters between 1994 and 1997 whereas the all-India average was just 7.4 per cent; and that the Muslim population in Assam had shown a rise of 77.42 per cent over what it had been in 1971 (there was no census in Assam in 1981).
The first set of moves Gogoi made was towards straightening out the law and order situation. Then he turned to finances, which he handled with some efficiency. This prompted Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to comment recently during the election campaign: “Tarun, I borrow money at six per cent interest and give it to you. And you earn three per cent interest on that.” When Gogoi first took over in 2001, Assam saw a flight of capital. The treasury was empty and in the red to the tune of Rs 500 crore. A loan of Rs 2,000 crore had to be serviced. Now, there is corruption. But the objective condition of state finances has improved considerably.
Assam has 126 seats in the Assembly. Along with Tarun Gogoi, 53 seats and 29 per cent of the vote share, the Congress-I was able to form a government with the help of independents (they numbered as many as 22 and had 15 per cent of the vote share) in 2006. And Tarun Gogoi became chief minister for the second term.
No matter how efficient a chief minister is, the anti-incumbency factor does make a difference. People get tired of seeing the same old faces and they get annoyed with serial cases of corruption, especially when they see no hope of any improvement. Perhaps it was this intuitive understanding that led Gogoi to say recently that while he was confident his party would get a majority again, he was open to a tie-up with any party including the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF).
Those who know the rise and base of the Congress in Assam understand what it must have cost Gogoi to say this. Traditionally, the Ali (Muslim migrants, mainly from Bangladesh), the Coolie (labourers in the tea estates of Assam) and the Bangali (Hindu migrants from Bangladesh and West Bengal) have been the mainstay of the Congress in Assam.
But with the decline of tea estates, the labourers’ block votes got divided along ethnic and religious lines. The flow of Bangalis into the state turned into a trickle and AUDF was formed.
Founded by perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal, AUDF makes no apologies for being a party that represents Muslim interests — and the party’s presence has only grown. In the last Lok Sabha elections, AUDF contested nine Lok Sabha seats. It won two. It has now decided to contest in 86 Vidhan Sabha seats and is likely to get around 25.
It is clear that as in the past, this time too, AUDF will eat into the Congress’s Muslim-base , especially in the western and central districts. If, as it is being speculated, the Congress’s tally goes below 45, it will need help in forming a government. It is this situation that Gogoi was referring to when he held out an olive branch to Ajmal.
But things have changed in Assam. When the UPA won the general elections for the second time, AUDF offered unconditional support to it. This was accepted with gratitude. The Congress leadership had in the past tried to counsel Gogoi to take Ajmal’s hand of friendship. But Gogoi had predicted – to use another cliché – that this would be the kiss of death for the Congress as it would soon be reduced to a minority in Muslim areas where it could not hope to compete with Ajmal’s community appeal.
Ajmal bided his time, staying in touch with Congress leaders including Ahmed Patel and Ghulam Nabi Azad. In parallel, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) tried desperately to strike a deal with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) but failed. So now Ajmal has two sets of political forces wooing him — the Congress and assorted independents; and the AGP, which doesn’t care much for his politics but knows it may have to do a deal with him if it wants to come to power. The Bodos, another minority ethnic group, are relatively flexible about their politics. They are likely to get 10 seats in the forthcoming elections.
So which coalition will it be — an AUDF-AGP one or an AUDF-Congress one? It’s hard to tell. Gogoi’s ego will not permit him to be a junior partner of AUDF. And yet, if AUDF negotiates hard, it could be in a position of holding a trump card against its partner — either the AGP or the Congress.
