Aditi Phadnis: Will Rajnath be king-maker?

PLAIN POLITICS

With the Muslim vote divided, the BJP might be able to pull off a coup in the UP polls.

This may surprise everyone but Rajnath Singh, who has just got his second term as BJP president, is aspiring only for small miracles in Uttar Pradesh. Given that the election is to be held in the next six months, Singh is not hoping for the number one position for his party. Not even number two, but number three would be just fine, thank you. For, the party at number three is going to form the next government in UP.

Till about three months ago, the BJP had despaired of ever getting anywhere in UP. An internal assessment did not give it more than 40 seats in the Assembly, down 50 per cent from the 88 it has in the current House. Because of many of Mulayam Singh Yadav's caste-neutral schemes like the Kanya Vidya Dhan, the Brahmins had been drifting away from the BJP. Yadav had also made overtures to the Banias, the traditional base of the BJP in UP, by giving two Rajya Sabha seats just six months ago to two Banias, in the hope that he could get the trading community to return to him in the elections. Other government benefits were also announced for traders.

However, the recent Nagar Panchayat elections, where the BJP won a victory that surprised not just everyone else but also the BJP, have demonstrated that the traders haven't gone anywhere. They continue to be with the BJP. In fact, the election, being derided as being of no consequence because it was so local, has nevertheless given some indication that the BJP might be able to pull off a coup in the Assembly elections.

True, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) did not contest the Nagar Panchayat elections. The reason she gave was that she wanted to reserve her energies for the battle that is to come. But then, which way did the Dalits vote? She said she had told her cadres to transfer their votes to the BJP and the Congress so that Mulayam Singh Yadav's party could be defeated.

Big mistake. In the course of explaining that she was the one who was pulling strings from behind the stage, she said the Dalits, unhappy with Muslim fundamentalism, voted for the BJP. She also used derogatory Hindi slang to describe the trader community. She possibly calculated that this would consolidate the Dalits behind her. But neither remark served her cause. What it did instead was to split the Muslims and made the Banias bridle.

Right now, the Muslim vote is teetering between returning to the Samajwadi Party and staying with Mayawati. But the Muslims didn't like being lumped as kattarpanthi (fundamentalist). Her throwaway remark revealed a deep anti-Muslim bias that has left leaders of the community shocked. It also exposed her. Whom they will eventually decide to vote for is an open question. But Mayawati has yielded ground to Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Which is why Rajnath is so happy. With the Muslim vote divided three ways "" Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress "" the BJP could gain from surprise upsets in many constituencies. Right now, the prediction in BJP circles is that in the 402-member UP House, the BJP might be able to get between 75 and 100 seats. Maybe this is too much to hope for, but from fighting with the Congress for the number four slot in UP, the BJP has improved its prospects to number three.

Seeing some glimmer of hope in the horizon, and recognising that he can be a leader only so long as he wins elections, Singh is making significant personal compromises to ensure the BJP does well in UP. He is going to keep a low profile in the state, leaving the field clear for his former rival Kalyan Singh. Kalyan Singh is a Lodh and has a following among the Other Backward Castes (OBCs) in UP that are opposed to Mulayam Singh Yadav. There are pockets in UP where non-Yadav OBC leaders like Sonelal Patel are tying up with Janata Dal (United) to re-create in UP a coalition of the Extreme Backward Classes (EBCs) who have been excluded from the gains of Jat-Yadav politics. It is this experiment in caste that brought Nitish Kumar to power in Bihar. It could be effective in UP as well.

But to do this, Kalyan Singh must have free run of UP. In the last Vidhan Sabha election, Kalyan Singh (who contested the polls independently under the banner of his own party, having walked out of the BJP) got the BJP defeated in 46 Assembly constituencies though on its own, it got only four seats. That factor will be missing from this Assembly election. Besides, allegations and counter allegations flew thick and fast between the Rajnath Singh and the Kalyan Singh camps after the Lok Sabha elections. At least 10 seats were lost because of infighting as leaders worked at cross-purposes. Rajnath is trying to ensure this animosity is absent during this election.

So by yielding in UP, Rajnath is trying to make his presidentship of the BJP credible and unassailable. This doesn't mean his role in UP gets diminished. He has already decided on implacable terms for the chief ministership. If Mayawati is at number one position and Mulayam Singh at number two, Rajnath will decide which of the two his party will help in forming the government. Philosophically, the BJP might find itself closer to Mayawati, but for reasons of pragmatic politics, it might have to do a deal with Mulayam Singh. Rajnath is keeping his options open. But there is total clarity in his mind about one thing: if a government is to be formed with BJP help, it is the BJP that will head it. None of the rakhi-tying stuff this time.

You will not find Rajnath saying anything on the BJP's options in UP until the results are in. His entire future politics depends on the UP outcome. If the BJP does well in UP, it can go shopping for new allies at the Centre. In Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, both, new equations will be thrown up. There will be a chance to re-craft the NDA. The possibilities are endless. And Rajnath is keeping mum. And hoping.