Many, including those keen to benefit from investments in resource-rich Myanmar, may be celebrating the victory of Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party in the recent parliamentary elections. The NLD won 43 of the 44 seats it contested; only the wilfully blind would have predicted anything less, if the hordes who risked brutal treatment by security forces to openly support her all these years were anything to go by. But jubilation could be premature for a variety of reasons.
For one, the NLD will hold less than 10 per cent of seats in Myanmar’s 664-member national legislature, so it is uncertain how significant a role it will be able to play in shaping constructive policy. For another, despite overwhelming support from Western democracies, Ms Suu Kyi can by no means be considered a pushover for foreign direct investors of any hue. She understands well the link between human rights, stability and meaningful economic development for the Myanmarese people. In the early to mid-’90s, when the military junta under Than Shwe invited foreign investment and triumphed when the Association of Southeast Asian Nations cynically opened its doors to Myanmarese membership, Ms Suu Kyi presciently suggested that foreign investors should wait until the government showed signs of meaningful political reform. Now, as she takes her seat in Parliament for the first time, Ms Suu Kyi may also discover that her role will require a change. There is, of course, a difference between being an officially designated dissident and an elected member of a country’s Parliament. But it is also true that some of her opposition may become moot in light of the reformist spirit of Thein Sein, president of the civilian government that took power in 2010, ending 49 years of rule by a military junta. A former lieutenant-general, he surprised doubters by freeing political prisoners, signing truces with rebel groups and opening a dialogue with Suu Kyi that paved the way for her election this month. Last year, his government’s decision to scrap a $3.6-billion Chinese-led dam project following vociferous public protests was a gesture worthy of Suu Kyi-type idealism. In January this year, the Myanmarese government scrapped a 4,000-MW Italian-Thai development project following expressions of concern about environmental damage.
All of this suggests a regime that, in spite of its lack of democratic accountability, may be willing to consider – for the first time – the will of a youngish population desperate for progress. Meanwhile, the government is drafting foreign investment laws that could jettison protectionist rules like stipulating domestic partners in foreign joint ventures, drafting new investment laws and making some effort at currency reform. All of this means that Myanmar could finally be opening for business for real, though there’s much work that needs to be done still. This should be good news for India, which has wisely played a delicate balancing act all these years. Some years ago, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had explained the benefits of democracy to an incredulous Than Shwe. His successor might well have heeded those words.
