For the past 50 years, Latin Americans had a love-hate relationship with the US. They loved American entertainment and hated US foreign policies. They had a particular disdain for Washington’s support for Latin dictators in the 1960s and 1970s, its campaign against Cuba and, more recently, just about everything associated with George W. Bush.
Fortunately, anti-US feelings in the region are about to subside due to momentous changes now occurring. Think of them as C-3PO. I’m not referring to the android from “Star Wars”. This is an acronym for crisis, Cuba, China, protectionism and Obama. Let’s take them in order.
The global economic crisis, born on Wall Street and exported to the rest of the world, has taught everyone a few things about the US. Namely, American economic policies and financial products aren’t risk-free and shouldn’t be embraced blindly by other nations.
Paradoxically, the worldwide recession will help improve relations between the US and Latin America. Chastened by the economic crisis and Iraq War, the US now is less arrogant. This resonates with Latin Americans in particular, following decades of being bullied by the superpower.
The world’s economic woes have made Latin Americans feel more pride and confidence in their ability to solve domestic problems. After all, for the first time in many years, a global monetary crisis wasn’t caused by the region’s debt default, currency devaluation or hyperinflation.
RETHINKING CUBA
Though irrelevant in terms of the global economy, Cuba has been a powerful political symbol. Consider how much has changed. Fidel Castro retired. The Organization of American States agreed to readmit the communist nation after 47 years of banishment.
Also, the US is likely to lift its trade embargo against Cuba in the near future. Once that happens, Cuba won’t be able to blame the US for its economic backwardness.
Over time, these developments will bring closure and psychological comfort to leftist Latin leaders, who built their political careers in the 1960s and 1970s, believing that communism represented a viable alternative to the US.
It’s getting more difficult for Latin leaders to blame US-backed policies for their own misfortunes. Case in point: The demise of the so-called Washington Consensus, a package of economic policies the US foisted on developing nations starting in late 1980s. American politicians argued the measures promoted the benefits of the free market. Their Latin counterparts said the measures worsened economic instability.
HERE COMES CHINA
Latin Americans share this deep-seated belief: their region’s social inequality and economic underdevelopment have been largely due to the exploitation of its vast natural resources by the developed world, first Europe and then, after World War II, the US.
This explains why Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez gave Barack Obama a copy of Eduardo Galeano’s Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent during the annual Summit of the Americas in April. The well-publicised gesture boosted the 1971 classic to No. 2 on Amazon.com’s bestseller list, up from No. 54,295.
Too bad Chavez presented it to the wrong President. China, not the US, looms as the region’s largest and most-feared investor and trade partner.
China has already surpassed the US as the largest buyer of Brazilian exports. It’s taking advantage of the world credit crunch to buy Latin American companies and provide loans to the continent’s nations in exchange for guaranteed supply of raw materials — oil, iron ore, soybeans — the Chinese need to sustain economic growth.
THE OBAMA EFFECT
Don’t be surprised if some Latin leaders who now oppose the US — including Venezuela’s Chavez, Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador and even Cristina Fernandez Kirchner in Argentina — suddenly soften their stance. You may even hear them parrot Obama’s rhetoric, encouraging developing nations to adopt better environmental and labour practices.
Obama already appeals to many Latin American Presidents as a completely different kind of US leader. “Obama is the first US President in many decades who looks like us,” said Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The sooner Obama lifts the US embargo on Cuba and reinforces trade ties with Latin America to prevent China from becoming the region’s new looter, the sooner leftist Latin leaders will see him as an ally rather than an enemy.
(Alexandre Marinis, political economist and founding partner of Mosaico Economia Politica, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)
