India’s population of 1.2 billion, according to the 2011 decennial census, is growing at the century’s slowest rate of 17.6 per cent — four percentage points lower than in the previous decade. India is approaching, but has not yet reached, the replacement level. This means India’s population will stabilise somewhere between 1.5 billion and 1.6 billion by 2030, making it the world’s most populous country. It is hard to discern a pattern in state-wise growth, except that the states with the lowest growth rates – Kerala (4.9 per cent), Goa (8.2 per cent), Sikkim (12.4 per cent) and Himachal Pradesh (12.8 per cent) – are small states with high literacy levels. Surprisingly, growth rates in the more developed southern and western states were only slightly below the national average, with the growth rate in Gujarat almost two percentage points above. On the other hand, growth rates in the so-called BIMARU states of northern India dropped by an average of five percentage points, with Rajasthan (seven percentage points) registering the sharpest decrease.
India’s literacy rate has inched to 74 per cent, but it is still among the lowest in rapidly developing Asia. Particularly heartening is the increase in female literacy from 54 per cent to 65 per cent. India has to do more to catch up with East Asia and Southeast Asia’s rates of literacy and skill development, but the past decade has shown an acceleration of performance that should continue into the next. It needs to be investigated whether the increase in literacy rates is owing to new enrollments in primary schools, thanks to schemes such as the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, or the recently launched adult literacy drive. Nevertheless, the results are encouraging.
The fall in the female sex ratio from 927 females for every 1,000 males to 914 within a decade is disturbing. Punjab (846) and Haryana (830) remain at the bottom of the barrel, despite an actual improvement in their respective ratios compared to the midterm evaluation in 2006. The ban on sex determination tests seems to have little effect on the ground, with the proliferation of sex clinics even in Tier-II and Tier-III cities and beyond. It is a matter of deep concern that the practice of female foeticide is widely prevalent even among the educated and affluent, despite widespread documentation of the adverse sociological consequences of such practices. The policy response would necessarily have to go beyond enforcement which has limitations. Mass education, through the print and electronic media, coupled with the involvement of NGOs, has proved far more effective in the past.
The findings of the census warrant serious analysis given that it is arguably the most exhaustive and reliable source of primary data at the household level. For example, it would be interesting to see if there is a correlation between higher female literacy and decline in population growth rates, as seen elsewhere. At first glance, declining fertility rates and increasing literacy levels would indicate that more people aspire to hitch their wagon to India’s economic boom. If this is true, one could not ask for a more solid foundation for inclusive growth. The policy challenge is to deepen and widen this sentiment.
