It is clear that, in spite of denials from the government, there is a momentum in the political class to ban opinion polls. A few months ago, Parliament was informed that the Election Commission had proposed that the results of opinion polls not be published or broadcast in the entire period between the notification of elections and the completion of the last phase of voting. Attorney General G E Vahanvati is also reported to have backed the Election Commission's opinion, saying that the organisation's mandate was to hold free and fair elections and that opinion polls came in the way of that by "prejudicing voters". While the government has since denied that any such move is likely at the moment, it hasn't ruled out the possibility of an all-party consensus about opinion polls. And the fact is that many in politics would like to see a ban. The ruling Congress will no doubt be leading the charge, burnt by several polls that show a precipitous decline in the party's popularity among voters.
Why is the political class worried about polls? In India, even more than in other democracies, there is a "bandwagon effect". A party or candidate that appears to be winning will attract more support. It is more intense in India than elsewhere because the capability of state functionaries to deliver patronage is so much more important here than in most other democracies. If one purpose of elections is to determine the pattern of patronage for the next five years, the pay-off to backing a losing candidate or party is even more severe. Thus, much effort is invested in many political campaigns on creating a "favourable wind" - which can turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is politics as usual; but opinion polls come in the way of that. Politicians grumble that many polls have unreliable results, and are conducted at the behest of rivals who want to claim a stronger position than they're actually in. So a consensus on banning their publication close to election time may not be too hard to achieve.
The problem is, of course, that this is a restriction on speech that is burdensome. And how, precisely, does a published poll prejudice a voter in the way that a campaign targeted at claiming a favourable wind does not? Votes are cast based on many things, and where "prejudice" ends and reasoned decisions begin is a difficult line to draw. In no democracy in any part of the world have opinion polls caused any problem for them to be banned. Why should they be banned in India? Also, will opinion pieces and editorials in newspapers be next? Election-time reporting? Pictures of vast rallies? In any case, if the Election Commission was truly worried about attempts to prejudice voters that skirt close to the borders of what is acceptable or ethical, there is one Rs 100-crore example sitting around for them to investigate. And that's the ruling United Progressive Alliance's Bharat Nirman advertising campaign. Supposedly an attempt to make their rights clear to people, nobody who has seen a Bharat Nirman advertisement can fail to understand the real purpose is to remind people that the Congress party has done well by them, and thus should be voted back in. These campaigns are not cheap - just the last round is believed to have cost Rs 30 crore. Fortunately for the Congress, Bharat Nirman can come out of the taxpayer's pocket. There are long and well-established norms against using government machinery for campaign work. How, precisely, is Bharat Nirman not precisely that? The Election Commission should focus less on opinion polls, and more on this vast breach of ethics.
