| A lot seems to have happened in the last four weeks since I last wrote. At the beginning of February, there was unbridled optimism all around. GDP growth rate forecasts had been upped to 9.2%; BSE and NSE indices were at all-time highs, property prices were touching stratospheric levels and the Tata-Corus mega-billion dollar deal was followed up by the Birla-Novelis one. On the political front, the UPA government was seemingly successful in living a tightrope existence though some clouds in the form of rising inflation were on the horizon. On the lifestyle front, Bentleys and Rolls were the gifts to be given out for birthdays and professional performances. |
| Alas, much has changed! Isolated, weak whispers questioning the sustainability of India's dream growth run in the absence of hard reforms, and harder investments in key social/ infrastructural sectors have now given way to an avalanche of hard-hitting stories in venerable publications such as the Economist, BusinessWeek, and Knowledge@Wharton, which have brought some harsh realities about India's socio-economic future to the fore. The market has "corrected" itself by more than 15% from its highs in early February (though I have never understood this term since none of the wise men who see virtues of "correction" when the markets have fallen precipitously ever talk about the need for it when the indices are on an upward trajectory). The winner's curse fears seem to have afflicted the Tata Steel and Hindalco stocks much too early to allow the winners to savour their victory even fleetingly. |
| Most disturbingly, the political events of the last few weeks, starting with losses for the Congress in Punjab and Uttarakhand, presentation of a vision-less/spineless Union Budget, and the knee-jerk reactions of the government in introducing price controls and controls on exports of some commodities have brought around a few realisms such as that elections cannot be won on the performance of stock exchange indices or remote controls operated from Delhi's Lutyens' zone bungalow occupants""grassroots engagement and on-the-ground performance count, and that much as most of us wish to believe, the economic reform process in India, indeed, is reversible. |
| Is it all bad news? In my view, we needed these jolts to snap out of this very pleasant dream we have been experiencing in recent months, and to wake up to the reality that there is still a lot of work to be done and hence this break may be a welcome one. |
| To start with, the message to the leadership of all political parties is that the patience of young India is fraying at the edges. It has been allowed to dream, and now it wishes its dreams to come true. It needs power, good roads, drinking water, affordable housing, quality education and healthcare, personal security, and exciting job opportunities. It also wishes to be allowed to live its life the way it wishes to, and efforts for moral policing or imposing old-fashioned ideas and values will result only in further alienating the young with the not-so-young. In short, our politicians should not attempt to take away the dreams of the aspiring, consuming class. The aam-aadmi of today is not only the slum-dweller or the postage stamp-sized farm-land tiller but also the worker in the Tata Motors' factory or the analyst at the Infosys campus or the server at a Macdonald's or a Pizza Hut outlet. This Gen-Next requires next-generation thinkers and thinking. Merely foisting progeny to give the impression that there is a change in the demographic composition of the legislatures and parliament is not likely to work. |
| The message to the Indian business leadership is that it should certainly think big, and act big. The time has come for the boys to be separated from the men. However, thinking big should be tempered with "thinking real". The India story is for real. I, like hundreds of millions of other Indians, truly believe that the 21st century could well be India's century. However, we have just qualified to participate in this marathon where the other finalists include the other 10-12 major global economies. There is no need for Indian businesses to burn out in the first kilometre itself. Not much has changed in the last 100 years when it comes to the key ingredients for making truly great organisations. Entrepreneurship, innovation in products and processes, and a visionary leadership supported with capable management layers are some of these key ingredients. At this time, India is blessed with adequate entrepreneurship and visionary leadership. However, it is still far behind in nurturing innovation and its management strength in the middle and bottom layers is woefully inadequate, notwithstanding the eight-digit salaries that some freshly minted management graduates claim to have been offered as compensation. High salaries at this time do not reflect a high quality of talent""in fact, they reflect a shortage of talent. Hence, the burning ambition for size and growth has to be blended with some ground realities, especially relating to the availability and the calibre of the human resource pool needed to transform the aggressive business plans into profitable and sustainable businesses. |
| Of course, those in the habit of giving extravagant gifts would have already realised that this generosity may not get the desired results and hence need no messages! |
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
