Assumptions that didn't survive 2022

In a year marked by conflict and loss, silver linings were few and far between, with many statements much harder to repeat at the end of 2022 than at the beginning

The story of the year has undoubtedly been the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In spite of repeated warnings from the Western intelligence community, as 2022 began most considered a full-scale invasion of a European country to be an extremely unlikely event; only seven weeks into the new year we were forced to revise that assessment.

Multiple other assumptions also had to be revised in the light of that invasion and subsequent events. The following is just a partial list of statements that are much harder to repeat at the end of 2022 than at its beginning.

‘Russia is still a great power’: