Even as pep talk, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s call for an injection of “animal spirits” into India’s slouching economy sounds hollow. For one thing, it’s too late in the day. For another, the entire climate has changed since the last time Dr Singh appeared in the role of a game-changer. Back then, economics still had some influence on politics. Today, politicians hold it by the scruff of its neck.
If Dr Singh’s real desire is to see India positioned a height of glory that the world will admire and respect, then it’s simply not enough to ask the private sector alone to be adventurous with its money. The government has to be an “animal” too, from the prime minister all the way down, including all the ministers who form his Cabinet, all the bureaucrats who run his administration, in addition to all the political parties who help him remain in power, for it’s the government’s job to keep the playing field in shape. Is that possible?
The answer isn’t flying in the winds yet, but isn’t difficult to guess. How much of an “animal” can Dr Singh afford to be when his government faces re-election in less than two years from now, at a time when central authority survives by yielding to powerful regional pulls? Where’s the room for decisive action when no party is big enough to command authority on its own and smaller parties have their own little games to play to get bigger on the national scene?
Even if he wants to, it’s next to impossible for Dr Singh, in the little time he has left before the end of his term, to make a meaningful difference. For, the challenge at this point is not just taking unpopular decisions at home, earning kudos from rating agencies, and seeing the annual GDP growth rate back at healthier levels. The greater challenge is to change the very way the world perceives India, as a country that’s fickle about its intentions and unsure about its goals, trying to navigate aimlessly through a veritable forest of loose ends, a go-in-and-get-out country that may be good for short-term bargain hunting but not for long-term trust.
Where’s the boldness of vision, the firmness of resolve, the courage of conviction, which alone can meet this challenge? Where’s the orchestration of efforts at all levels of government, in the Centre as well as in the states, which alone can help an economy blossom like a symphony? Where’s the guarantee that a decision taken today won’t be overturned tomorrow? Where’s the equality of development to ensure that violent protests and social unrest won’t suddenly erupt and topple the apple cart?
Misguided and ill-pursued policies of successive governments, the steady rise of regional politics, an open embrace of populism as a determinant of political survival, a blatant spread of corruption, and the peculiar administrative attitude that measures success by budgetary allocations, not how these funds are actually used, have so queered the economic process that questions of vision and courage have lost all meaning. And the burdens, thus, accumulated along the way – huge deficits, high inflation, awfully inadequate infrastructure and abysmal poverty – have only become heavier.
Keynesian “animalism” works only at a high level of ground preparation, which India has yet to achieve. Any effort now by Dr Singh to invite a pack of “animals” to prowl free and hunt for gains on a glaringly unbalanced economic landscape would only further distort the Indian growth story, sharpening economic divisions and deepening social unrest. It will be like trying to build a high-rise tower on a foundation fit only for a two-storey house. Besides, there’s no dearth of populists within his party and outside who would be only too happy to shoot him down. His derring-do won’t stand a chance, unless he’s prepared to risk it all.
So, won’t India develop? Of course, it will, but in the erratic manner that has been its hallmark, stepping into action only when something needs to be fixed, stepping aside whenever politics gets in the way. Yes, the journey will be slow. It has taken us 65 years to get to a stage where one part of India is able to ride out in Mercs and BMWs. Maybe it will take another 65 years to reach the stage where the other India won’t have to lie helplessly anymore on a bare hospital floor, waiting for treatment, or death, whichever is faster. But we’ve the hope we’ll get there some day.
It matters little if, by then, China becomes even more invincible and even smaller nations go past us to take up commanding positions in a rapidly changing world. When we aren’t competing with anybody, why should we care? At least, we can bring up the rear and the world must give us an “A” for effort.
