Barun Roy: China 2020 - Get the message?

ASIA FILE

2020 is just 13 years away and China continues to develop its infrastructure at a frenzied pace "" the question is whether India can emulate China's growth without getting its infrastructure act together.

In another 13 years, by 2020, China's economy will reach a size of at least $4 trillion, possibly the third largest in the world. Its 1.3 billion people will have a per capita income of $3,000, against $1,230 now, though some observers believe it could actually be double that amount.

A whole lot of other things will happen too. Almost 60 per cent of the population will live in cities. All households in the country will have access to a phone. A billion Chinese will be using mobiles. China will oust the US as the largest car market in the world. Its foreign trade will hit the $2 trillion level. And, according to the World Tourism Organisation, it will emerge as the fourth largest source of leisure travellers in the world.

Usually, one would have used "would" or "could." I have chosen to use "will" for one simple reason: China doesn't set unachievable goals and achieves what it sets. More importantly, it realises that achieving takes a lot of hard work "" wishing alone isn't enough "" and basic to the hard work is the development of essential infrastructure. If the economy is to grow continuously, the infrastructure must grow continuously too.

That's the message coming out of China, very loud and very clear, and those of us in India who have our own 2020 ambitions would do well to listen. The story of China's phenomenal economic transformation is actually one of infrastructure building on a truly massive scale, which has few parallels in the world.

Take roads. A country that now has a total of 1.9 million km of roads didn't have an inch of expressway in 1988. At the end of 2005 it already had 41,000 km of these super roads. By all reckoning, the total length of expressways in the country will go up to 65,000 km by 2010 and at least 85,000 km by 2020. The network, nicknamed 7918, will then consist of seven corridors branching out of Beijing, nine running north to south, and 18 crossing the country east to west, linking up all provincial capitals and cities with a population of 200,000 or more.

Perhaps Paul Theroux will have to write another book to describe the transformation of China Railway. It's no longer the iron rooster he knew. There's now a train even to Lhasa and speeds across the system are rising all the time. A high-speed train, with a top speed of 250 km per hour, has just gone into service between Shanghai and Hangzhou. By 2020, there will be at least 2,000 km of high-speed railways, including 300 km-an-hour trains between Shanghai and Beijing. The total railway network will be expanded from 76,600 km at present to 100,000 km (if not 120,000 km), including 12,000 km of dedicated passenger corridors.

Inevitably, bridges are getting their share of attention too. By 2020, at least 120 bridges will span the Yangtze River alone to facilitate cross-country transportation. Sixteen bridges and tunnels will span the Huangpu in Shanghai, or one bridge or tunnel every two km. The 36 km long Hangzhou Bay Bridge, due for completion next year, will reduce the distance between Shanghai and Hong Kong by 120 km and boost development in the entire southern region.

That's not all. By 2020, the country's installed power capacity will be doubled to 1,250 GW and an ultra high-voltage electricity network will be in place. New shipping channels are being developed in the Pearl and Yangtze River regions and many of them will be fit to accept 3,000-ton ocean-going vessels. Coming up on an island some 20 miles out to sea from Shanghai is what could, by 2020, be the largest container shipping port in the world. As many as 80 new airports will be built in the next 13 years, taking the total number of airports to 220, second only to the US.

Thus, one needn't be surprised when news reports say that China now consumes 54 per cent of the world's production of concrete and 36 per cent of its supply of steel. By 2020, it will consume 10 per cent of all the oil produced in the world.

What's really surprising is the pace at which China is building its infrastructure, which can be described only as breakneck or frenzied. It's a country possessed with development, where changes are measured by weeks, not years, and upgrading begins as soon as new construction ends. The commitment to change is deep and runs through the entire system, from the higher echelons of government in Beijing all the way to functionaries actually fulfilling orders on the ground.

We don't see that in India. Development here has yet to become a faith, commitments are still made or unmade to suit political ends, decisions still take ages to filter through the bureaucracy, and 2020 is only 13 years away.