After Fukushima, Japan is moving towards a new energy culture, which could be a model for all countries for whom energy security is a major concern. While the main goal is to diversify the sources of power generation as widely as possible, the emphasis is on reducing grid dependence, widening the scope for energy conservation, and keeping demand under control without slowing down economic growth.
To cope with the vacuum created by the shutdown of all of the country's 50 commercial nuclear reactors in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami two years ago that wrecked the Fukushima No 1 nuclear power station, setting off widespread public panic over nuclear safety, companies have started to set up their own gas-fired generation systems to keep production going. They are also paying greater attention to recycling waste energy for purposes that were previously directly energy-dependent. Toyota, for example, at its plant in northern Japan, uses the heat derived from the burning of gas to dry the paint on finished vehicles, while hot water from the gas turbine is run through pipes into a nearby greenhouse to grow green peppers.
At the same time, renewable energy, which currently supplies less than 2 per cent of Japan's electricity demand, is looming larger than ever before. Smaller producers, encouraged by the government's decision to raise this share and offer attractive feed-in tariffs, are cropping up in many places to meet local needs. Since the Fukushima disaster, Japan has added 1,394 Mw of new renewable energy capacity. One-third of it is solar, but wind turbines are coming into prominence, too, with the world's largest offshore wind farm being built off the battered northern coast. It's designed to generate 1 Gw of electricity from 140 wind turbines by 2020, equivalent to the power generated by a nuclear reactor. Last year, the government announced plans to build experimental tidal and wave power plants in coastal areas.
Significantly, however, the government seems to have reached a conclusion that Japan can't do without nuclear power altogether despite strong public sentiment against it at the moment. Before Fukushima, nuclear power used to supply one-third of the country's total electricity demand, and the idea was to raise this share steadily as part of a planned increase of the proportion of non-polluting power to 70 per cent by 2030. While that won't be the case any more, a new energy policy now being worked out will make it clear that nuclear power has to form a key element of Japan's future energy security. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said it in so many words. New safety standards have been introduced and efforts are underway to restart the reactors one by one with further safeguards.
Japan's choices are limited and compulsions are obvious. It can't go back on its commitment to lead the world in reducing carbon emissions by 50 per cent by 2050, and re-embrace polluting ways of producing electricity without devastating effects on its trade and finances. While coal and gas are a short-term necessity - 14 new gas- and coal-fired power plants are due to start up by the end of 2014 - they're only that, a short-term way out of an immediate crisis. Carbon emissions are up by over 3 per cent since Fukushima, even though demand for electricity has dropped by nearly 15 per cent due to various conservation measures, and public sentiment against atmospheric pollution is as strong as its concern over nuclear safety.
Officials believe a judicious combination of energy sources, without depending heavily on any one of them, would be the best option forward for Japan, and since, in their calculation, wind and solar energy could provide only 20 per cent of the demand at the most and hydroelectricity has its limitations, nuclear power must remain a consideration in evolving the future energy mix, though not as big as before. They're further emboldened in their belief by the fact that Fukushima seems to have had no effect on nuclear programmes in the rest of Asia.
Of around 70 new nuclear power reactors that are being built around the world at the moment (in addition to more than 430 already in operation), 50 are in Asia. China, for example, has 17 reactors in operation already, 30 under construction, and plans for 59 more. India, with 20 operating reactors, is building seven more, while 18 additional ones are said to be on the drawing boards. South Korea has 23 existing reactors and plans to add 16 more by 2030.
However, post-Fukushima, Japan's major goal will be to gradually move away from large-scale, nationwide grid dependency and encourage local self-sufficiency in power generation and distribution as its best insurance against widespread supply disruptions during future calamities. Decentralised, self-regulating, and smarter grids will be set up to serve specific areas, but structured in such a way that users will be able to provide each other with power in case of emergencies.
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