As Myanmar holds its first general election in two decades, having annulled the last that opposition leader Aung Sang Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) had swept, we’re going to see a fresh torrent of tears being shed by lovers of democracy around the world. Leaders of nations, including ours, will vie with each other to condemn Yangon’s military rulers for their utter disregard of calls for democratic reforms and worry about what happens next to Suu Kyi after her current detention expires on November 13.
But these sham concerns over a sham election, boycotted by the NLD because of mischievous election laws, can no longer hide a new reality that’s slowly emerging in Myanmar. That country is no longer the pariah it used to be, worthy only of the world’s contempt. Questions of political morality are being quietly set aside in favour of economic self-interest. Of course, US- and UN-led sanctions are still in force, but these have created an opportunity potential that’s too inviting to ignore and is being gradually seized by business interests from elsewhere. Like nature, investors abhor vacuum, too, be they private or governmental.
Engagement, not confrontation, they say, is a more effective way of drawing out the junta, since sanctions and political ostracism haven’t worked and have only made it more belligerent. Economic involvement, it’s argued, could end the country’s isolation and create an atmosphere of growth in which the military rulers would be more disposed to listen to friendly advice. The argument has a point. This is surely the current mood of thinking among Myanmar’s immediate neighbours in Southeast Asia. It’s also the feeling of China and India, looking to establish and expand positions of advantage in a country that’s also geographically important to both.
Yangon is happy with the emerging scenario and willing to play along, though for a different reason. If the economy improves through foreign investments, some of the benefits are bound to spill over among the general people, even after lining the pockets of the ruling elite in good measure, thereby robbing the political opposition of some of its sting.
There are examples of nations, such as China and Singapore, using this formula with great success, pursuing economic prosperity to keep political resentments in check. Whether the same formula will work for Myanmar, too, remains to be seen and will depend on how earnest its rulers actually are to make a change and how deep their concern is for the people’s economic welfare. But the first footsteps in that direction have been taken and they aren’t quite tentative.
Officially, Myanmar has been open for foreign investment since 1988, but it’s only in recently that there has been a significant spurt of foreign interest in the country. While $315 million worth of investment commitments were received in the entire 2009-10 financial year (April-March), a total of $15.84 billion was said to have been contracted in the first four months of 2010-11 alone, bringing the cumulative amount till July to over $31.895 billion. Even though these are only commitments, they certainly indicate a trend.
Of the investments contracted so far, as much as $13.447 billion was for the oil and gas sector and $11.341 billion for electric power, two of Myanmar’s biggest development priorities. At least 27 companies from 13 countries, including Australia, China, France, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand, are engaged in oil and gas, with stakes in more than 30 fields. The mining sector attracted $2.395 billion, manufacturing received $1.662 billion, while $1.064 billion was marked for hotels and tourism. New highways are being built to link the country more closely with Southeast Asia, new ports to serve its own trade and others’, and special economic zones to host new investments.
Early last month, at an international travel expo in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar decided to market themselves as a single tourist destination. The “Four Countries, One Destination” campaign is expected to especially benefit Myanmar, which has so far languished on the fringes of world tourism. It received a paltry 227,400 international tourists in 2009 and aims to get 1 million in the next couple of years. A Thai-based company has just announced plans for a $15 million, five-star, 100-room resort in southern Myanmar, to open in December 2012.
Increasingly, for the international business community, questions of ethics and morality have begun to diminish in value. Thirteen foreign airlines already fly to Yangon. More will in future. As Myanmar’s economic isolation recedes, the political isolation of Suu Kyi and her democratic movement will look even more acute and helpless. To some, even forgettable, just as we in India seem to have forgotten that indomitable rights activist from Manipur, Irom Sharmila Chanu, on a decade-old hunger strike against the Armed Forces Special Powers Act.
