And for a hundred visions and revisions,
Before the taking of a toast and tea
— T S Eliot “The Love Song of J Alfred Prufrock”
The end of the first quarter of the calendar year is a time when economic forecasters like me take a hard look at the predictions made at the beginning of the year and figure out where exactly their tea leaves let them down. In fact there is much to revise in both the assumptions and forecasts we made both about the global and domestic economy.
For one thing, contrary to what a fair number of my
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